“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Dec 28, 2014
7 fresh retail design strategies
Generic ‘boxes’ and indifferent service won’t cut it with today’s savvy shoppers. Retailers are seeking a technology-rich-but-handmade vibe, plus greater speed to market and adaptability.
| Dec 28, 2014
Workplace design trends: Make way for the Millennials
Driven by changing work styles, mobile technology, and the growing presence of Millennials, today’s workplaces are changing, mostly for the better. We examine the top office design trends.
| Dec 28, 2014
AIA: Commercial glass façade and door systems
When it comes to selecting fenestration systems—particularly glass facades and door systems—a number of factors come into play, requiring a thorough evaluation of a project’s individual requirements.
| Dec 27, 2014
7 ways to enhance workplace mobility
The open work environment has allowed owners to house more employees in smaller spaces, minimizing the required real estate and capital costs. But, what about all of their wireless devices?
| Dec 27, 2014
'Core-first' construction technique cuts costs, saves time on NYC high-rise project
When Plaza Construction first introduced the concept of "core first" in managing the construction of a major office building, the procedure of pouring concrete prior to erecting a steel frame had never been done in New York City.
| Dec 23, 2014
5 tech trends transforming BIM/VDC
From energy modeling on the fly to prefabrication of building systems, these advancements are potential game changers for AEC firms that are serious about building information modeling.
| Dec 22, 2014
What Building Teams can learn from home builders' travails
Commercial and residential construction can be as different as night and day. But as one who covered the housing industry for nearly a decade, I firmly believe AEC firms can learn some valuable lessons from the trials and tribulations that home builders experienced during the Great Recession, writes BD+C's John Caulfield.
| Dec 22, 2014
Skanska to build Miami’s Patricia and Phillip Frost Museum of Science
Designed by Grimshaw Architects, the 250,000-sf museum will serve as an economic engine and cultural anchor for Miami’s fast-growing urban core.
| Dec 22, 2014
Studio Gang to design Chicago’s third-tallest skyscraper
The first U.S. real-estate investment by The Wanda Group, owned by China’s richest man, will be an 88-story, 1,148-ft-tall mixed-use tower designed by Jeanne Gang.
| Dec 19, 2014
Zaha Hadid unveils dune-shaped HQ for Emirati environmental management company
Zaha Hadid Architects released designs for the new headquarters of Emirati environmental management company Bee’ah, revealing a structure that references the shape and motion of a sand dune.