“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
Smart Buildings | Jan 7, 2015
Best practices for urban infill development: Embrace the region's character, master the pedestrian experience
If an urban building isn’t grounded in the local region’s character, it will end up feeling generic and out-of-place. To do urban infill the right way, it’s essential to slow down and pay proper attention to the context of an urban environment, writes GS&P's Joe Bucher.
| Jan 6, 2015
Construction permits exceeded $2 billion in Minneapolis in 2014
Two major projects—a new stadium for the Minnesota Vikings NFL team and the city’s Downtown East redevelopment—accounted for about half of the total worth of the permits issued.
| Jan 6, 2015
Snøhetta unveils design proposal of the Barack Obama Presidential Center Library for the University of Hawaii
The plan by Snøhetta and WCIT Architecture features a building that appears square from the outside, but opens at one corner into a rounded courtyard with a pool, Dezeen reports.
| Jan 5, 2015
Another billionaire sports club owner plans to build a football stadium in Los Angeles
Kroenke Group is the latest in a series of high-profile investors that want to bring back pro football to the City of Lights.
| Jan 5, 2015
Beyond training: How locker rooms are becoming more like living rooms
Despite having common elements—lockers for personal gear and high-quality sound systems—the real challenge when designing locker rooms is creating a space that reflects the attitude of the team, writes SRG Partnership's Aaron Pleskac.
| Jan 2, 2015
Construction put in place enjoyed healthy gains in 2014
Construction consultant FMI foresees—with some caveats—continuing growth in the office, lodging, and manufacturing sectors. But funding uncertainties raise red flags in education and healthcare.
| Dec 30, 2014
A simplified arena concept for NBA’s Warriors creates interest
The Golden State Warriors, currently the team with the best record in the National Basketball Association, looks like it could finally get a new arena.
| Dec 30, 2014
The future of healthcare facilities: new products, changing delivery models, and strategic relationships
Healthcare continues to shift toward Madison Avenue and Silicon Valley as it revamps business practices to focus on consumerism and efficiency, writes CBRE Healthcare's Patrick Duke.
| Dec 29, 2014
High-strength aluminum footbridge designed to withstand deep-ocean movement, high wind speeds [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
The metal’s flexibility makes the difference in an oil rig footbridge connecting platforms in the West Philippine Sea. The design solution was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
| Dec 29, 2014
HDR and Hill International to turn three floors of a jail into a modern, secure healthcare center [BD+C's 2014 Great Solutions Report]
By bringing healthcare services in house, Dallas County Jail will greatly minimize the security risk and added cost of transferring ill or injured prisoners to a nearby hospital. The project was named a 2014 Great Solution by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
