The CBRE Investor Survey was sent to influential senior housing investors, developers, and brokers throughout the U.S. with the objective of identifying key trends in the senior housing real estate industry in an effort to better understand the state of the rapidly evolving senior housing and care market.
The sector closed another record-setting year in 2015, with 514 institutional transactions closed and $18.7 billion in institutional sales, despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, according to data from the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry (NIC). The increase in volume over 2014 was 4.5%, revealing a significant decrease in growth rate, a trend that is consistent with the overall U.S. commercial real estate market.
Among the key findings from the survey: 48% of respondents expect no change in cap rates over the next 12-month period, while 31% expect an increase in cap rates; 21% are expecting to see compression.
The change in capitalization rates in 2015 was minimal compared to prior survey results, signaling that the market cycle is close to reaching a peak. Investor interest (old and new) remains high with 58% of respondents looking to increase their exposure to the space, while participation by public REITs in 2016 is a significant, yet unknown variable.
Senior housing cap rates have averaged at a spread of roughly 518 basis points (bps) to the 10-year Treasury, with the most recent indicated spread falling above the historical average at 554 bps. This indicates room for further compression as interest rates creep upward, according to CBRE. As a point of reference, multifamily cap rates currently represent a 215 bps spread.
Total senior housing returns were reported at 16.3%, 14.8%, and 13.3% over a one-, five-, and 10-year period. These returns have outperformed multifamily returns and the NCREIF Property Index over the same periods.
The number of units under construction has increased from 22,975 at the end of 2012 to 48,903 as of 4Q 2015. With an average development period of 12 to 15 months, a significant portion of this supply will come on line in 2016. This is a major concern in the industry.
“The seniors housing landscape is evolving with the increased presence of sophisticated capital, market transparency, operational efficiencies and technological advances. This can be compared to the institutionalization that the multifamily sector experienced from the mid-1990s to early 2000s,” said Zach Bowyer, MAI, National Practice Leader for CBRE’s seniors housing specialty practice. “Increased investment activity, coupled with increased construction activity, has resulted in an increased demand for experienced operators. Growing pains are expected as the market expands, and property management continues to be a key factor in protecting the value of a seniors housing asset.”
For a PDF copy of the CBRE Senior Housing Investor Survey & Market Outlook, click here.
Related Stories
MFPRO+ Special Reports | Mar 6, 2024
Top 10 trends in senior living facilities for 2024
The 65-and-over population is growing faster than any other age group. Architects, engineers, and contractors are coming up with creative senior housing solutions to better serve this burgeoning cohort.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 4, 2024
Single-family rentals continue to grow in BTR communities
Single-family rentals are continuing to grow in built-to-rent communities. Both rent and occupancy growth have been strong in recent months while remaining a financially viable option for renters.
MFPRO+ News | Mar 2, 2024
Job gains boost Yardi Matrix National Rent Forecast for 2024
Multifamily asking rents broke the five-month streak of sequential average declines in January, rising 0.07 percent, shows a new special report from Yardi Matrix.
MFPRO+ News | Mar 1, 2024
Housing affordability, speed of construction are top of mind for multifamily architecture and construction firms
The 2023 Multifamily Giants get creative to solve the affordability crisis, while helping their developer clients build faster and more economically.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 29, 2024
Manny Gonzalez, FAIA, inducted into Best in American Living Awards Hall of Fame
Manny Gonzalez, FAIA, has been inducted into the BALA Hall of Fame.
MFPRO+ Research | Feb 28, 2024
New download: BD+C's 2023 Multifamily Amenities report
New research from Building Design+Construction and Multifamily Pro+ highlights the 127 top amenities that developers, property owners, architects, contractors, and builders are providing in today’s apartment, condominium, student housing, and senior living communities.
MFPRO+ Research | Feb 27, 2024
Most competitive rental markets of early 2024
The U.S. rental market in early 2024 is moderately competitive, with apartments taking an average of 41 days to find tenants, according to the latest RentCafe Market Competitivity Report.
Designers | Feb 23, 2024
Coverings releases top 2024 tile trends
In celebration of National Tile Day, Coverings, North America's leading tile and stone exhibition, has announced the top 10 tile trends for 2024.
MFPRO+ Special Reports | Feb 22, 2024
Crystal Lagoons: A deep dive into real estate's most extreme guest amenity
These year-round, manmade, crystal clear blue lagoons offer a groundbreaking technology with immense potential to redefine the concept of water amenities. However, navigating regulatory challenges and ensuring long-term sustainability are crucial to success with Crystal Lagoons.
Building Tech | Feb 20, 2024
Construction method featuring LEGO-like bricks wins global innovation award
A new construction method featuring LEGO-like bricks made from a renewable composite material took first place for building innovations at the 2024 JEC Composites Innovation Awards in Paris, France.