The CBRE Investor Survey was sent to influential senior housing investors, developers, and brokers throughout the U.S. with the objective of identifying key trends in the senior housing real estate industry in an effort to better understand the state of the rapidly evolving senior housing and care market.
The sector closed another record-setting year in 2015, with 514 institutional transactions closed and $18.7 billion in institutional sales, despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, according to data from the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry (NIC). The increase in volume over 2014 was 4.5%, revealing a significant decrease in growth rate, a trend that is consistent with the overall U.S. commercial real estate market.
Among the key findings from the survey: 48% of respondents expect no change in cap rates over the next 12-month period, while 31% expect an increase in cap rates; 21% are expecting to see compression.
The change in capitalization rates in 2015 was minimal compared to prior survey results, signaling that the market cycle is close to reaching a peak. Investor interest (old and new) remains high with 58% of respondents looking to increase their exposure to the space, while participation by public REITs in 2016 is a significant, yet unknown variable.
Senior housing cap rates have averaged at a spread of roughly 518 basis points (bps) to the 10-year Treasury, with the most recent indicated spread falling above the historical average at 554 bps. This indicates room for further compression as interest rates creep upward, according to CBRE. As a point of reference, multifamily cap rates currently represent a 215 bps spread.
Total senior housing returns were reported at 16.3%, 14.8%, and 13.3% over a one-, five-, and 10-year period. These returns have outperformed multifamily returns and the NCREIF Property Index over the same periods.
The number of units under construction has increased from 22,975 at the end of 2012 to 48,903 as of 4Q 2015. With an average development period of 12 to 15 months, a significant portion of this supply will come on line in 2016. This is a major concern in the industry.
“The seniors housing landscape is evolving with the increased presence of sophisticated capital, market transparency, operational efficiencies and technological advances. This can be compared to the institutionalization that the multifamily sector experienced from the mid-1990s to early 2000s,” said Zach Bowyer, MAI, National Practice Leader for CBRE’s seniors housing specialty practice. “Increased investment activity, coupled with increased construction activity, has resulted in an increased demand for experienced operators. Growing pains are expected as the market expands, and property management continues to be a key factor in protecting the value of a seniors housing asset.”
For a PDF copy of the CBRE Senior Housing Investor Survey & Market Outlook, click here.
Related Stories
Adaptive Reuse | Mar 21, 2024
Massachusetts launches program to spur office-to-residential conversions statewide
Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey recently launched a program to help cities across the state identify underused office buildings that are best suited for residential conversions.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 19, 2024
Jim Chapman Construction Group completes its second college town BTR community
JCCG's 200-unit Cottages at Lexington, in Athens, Ga., is fully leased.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 19, 2024
Two senior housing properties renovated with 608 replacement windows
Renovation of the two properties, with 200 apartments for seniors, was financed through a special public/private arrangement.
MFPRO+ New Projects | Mar 18, 2024
Luxury apartments in New York restore and renovate a century-old residential building
COOKFOX Architects has completed a luxury apartment building at 378 West End Avenue in New York City. The project restored and renovated the original residence built in 1915, while extending a new structure east on West 78th Street.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 18, 2024
YWCA building in Boston’s Back Bay converted into 210 affordable rental apartments
Renovation of YWCA at 140 Clarendon Street will serve 111 previously unhoused families and individuals.
Adaptive Reuse | Mar 15, 2024
San Francisco voters approve tax break for office-to-residential conversions
San Francisco voters recently approved a ballot measure to offer tax breaks to developers who convert commercial buildings to residential use. The tax break applies to conversions of up to 5 million sf of commercial space through 2030.
Apartments | Mar 13, 2024
A landscaped canyon runs through this luxury apartment development in Denver
Set to open in April, One River North is a 16-story, 187-unit luxury apartment building with private, open-air terraces located in Denver’s RiNo arts district. Biophilic design plays a central role throughout the building, allowing residents to connect with nature and providing a distinctive living experience.
Affordable Housing | Mar 12, 2024
An all-electric affordable housing project in Southern California offers 48 apartments plus community spaces
In Santa Monica, Calif., Brunson Terrace is an all-electric, 100% affordable housing project that’s over eight times more energy efficient than similar buildings, according to architect Brooks + Scarpa. Located across the street from Santa Monica College, the net zero building has been certified LEED Platinum.
MFPRO+ News | Mar 12, 2024
Multifamily housing starts and permitting activity drop 10% year-over-year
The past year saw over 1.4 million new homes added to the national housing inventory. Despite the 4% growth in units, both the number of new homes under construction and the number of permits dropped year-over-year.
Affordable Housing | Mar 11, 2024
Los Angeles’s streamlined approval policies leading to boom in affordable housing plans
Since December 2022, Los Angeles’s planning department has received plans for more than 13,770 affordable units. The number of units put in the approval pipeline in roughly one year is just below the total number of affordable units approved in Los Angeles in 2020, 2021, and 2022 combined.