National nonresidential construction spending declined 1.8% in June, totaling $773.8 billion on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis—a 2.3% increase compared to the same time a year ago, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data published today. Public nonresidential spending fell 3.7% in June, but is up 6.4% year over year, while private nonresidential spending fell 0.3% on a monthly basis and is up 0.4% from June 2018.
Among the 16 nonresidential construction spending categories tracked by the Census Bureau, seven experienced increases in monthly spending, although only the conservation and development (+3.8%) and commercial (+1.3%) categories increased by more than 1%. While spending in several categories fell for the month, significant decreases in the publicly driven educational (-6.5%) and highway and street (-6.3%) categories accounted for nearly all of the monthly decline.
“Like the balance of the U.S. economy, nonresidential construction spending appears to be softening, albeit gradually,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Private nonresidential construction spending has been trending lower for several months, and segments like office and lodging are no longer the drivers of construction spending growth that they had been, likely due to growing concerns about market saturation.
“The dip in public construction may have been merely temporary, which is likely the case given the ongoing strength of state and local government finances.” said Basu. “And with the economy still adding substantial numbers of jobs, wages growing at or near a decade-high pace, consumers continuing to spend and property values remaining stable, local and state governments should continue to experience solid income, retail and real estate tax collections. All things being equal, that should help fuel infrastructure outlays, especially given still very low borrowing costs.
“While many observers continue to focus on issues such as trade disputes, high levels of corporate debt and asset prices that are susceptible to sharp declines, the U.S. construction industry’s most significant source of uncertainty may be the pending insolvency of the Highway Trust Fund,” said Basu. “That insolvency is now a mere two years away, and if policymakers fail to act expeditiously, state and local policymakers may choose to postpone certain projects given the rising uncertainty of federal funding. The highway/street and transportation categories are especially vulnerable to such dynamics.”
Related Stories
Market Data | Dec 4, 2019
Nonresidential construction spending falls in October
Private nonresidential spending fell 1.2% on a monthly basis and is down 4.3% from October 2018.
Market Data | Nov 25, 2019
Office construction lifts U.S. asking rental rate, but slowing absorption in Q3 raises concerns
12-month net absorption decelerates by one-third from 2018 total.
Market Data | Nov 22, 2019
Architecture Billings Index rebounds after two down months
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score in October is 52.0.
Market Data | Nov 14, 2019
Construction input prices unchanged in October
Nonresidential construction input prices fell 0.1% for the month and are down 2.0% compared to the same time last year.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 7, 2019
Multifamily construction market remains strong heading into 2020
Fewer than one in 10 AEC firms doing multifamily work reported a decrease in proposal activity in Q3 2019, according to a PSMJ report.
Market Data | Nov 5, 2019
Construction and real estate industry deals in September 2019 total $21.7bn globally
In terms of number of deals, the sector saw a drop of 4.4% over the last 12-month average.
Market Data | Nov 4, 2019
Nonresidential construction spending rebounds slightly in September
Private nonresidential spending fell 0.3% on a monthly basis and is down 5.7% compared to the same time last year.
Market Data | Nov 1, 2019
GDP growth expands despite reduction in nonresident investment
The annual rate for nonresidential fixed investment in structures declined 15.3% in the third quarter.
Market Data | Oct 24, 2019
Architecture Billings Index downturn moderates as challenging conditions continue
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score in September is 49.7.
Market Data | Oct 23, 2019
ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator rebounds in August
The primary issue for most contractors is not a lack of demand, but an ongoing and worsening shortage of skilled workers available to meet contractual requirements.