As a result of the partially shutdown economy, businesses and organizations will continue to be hesitant to invest in modernized or new facilities, according to a mid-year update to the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) Consensus Construction Forecast. The trend ends an almost decade-long expansion in construction spending.
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—projects spending on nonresidential facilities will decline just over eight percent this year, and another five percent in 2021. The commercial building sector is expected to be the hardest hit, with spending projected to decline almost 12% this year and another eight percent in 2021. The industrial sector is slated to see declines of five percent this year and three percent next year. While institutional buildings will fare the best on the nonresidential side, spending on these facilities is projected to drop almost five percent this year, and another two percent next.
“As much of the economy was shut down in mid-March to help limit the spread of the pandemic, there was hope that after the initial steep decline in economic activity there could be an almost equally quick recovery,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “However, since mid-June economic growth has stalled. The timing coincides with a spike in new Covid-19 cases across the country, and the resulting pause or roll-back of reopening plans in many states.”
Complete details on the latest Consensus Construction Forecast can be found on AIA’s website.
Related Stories
Market Data | Mar 18, 2021
Commercial Construction Contractors’ Outlook lifts on rising revenue expectations
Concerns about finding skilled workers, material costs, and steel tariffs linger.
Market Data | Mar 16, 2021
Construction employment in January lags pre-pandemic mark in 42 states
Canceled projects, supply-chain woes threaten future jobs.
Market Data | Mar 15, 2021
Rising materials prices and supply chain disruptions are hurting many construction firms
The same firms are already struggling to cope with pandemic impacts.
Market Data | Mar 11, 2021
Soaring materials costs, supply-chain problems, and project cancellations continue to impact construction industry
Costs and delayed deliveries of materials, parts, and supplies are vexing many contractors.
Market Data | Mar 8, 2021
Construction employment declines by 61,000 in February
Association officials urge congress and Biden administration to focus on new infrastructure funding.
Market Data | Mar 2, 2021
Construction spending rises in January as private nonresidential sector stages rare gain
Private nonresidential market shrinks 10% since January 2020 with declines in all 11 segments.
Market Data | Feb 24, 2021
2021 won’t be a growth year for construction spending, says latest JLL forecast
Predicts second-half improvement toward normalization next year.
Market Data | Feb 23, 2021
Architectural billings continue to contract in 2021
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for January was 44.9 compared to 42.3 in December.
Healthcare Facilities | Feb 18, 2021
The Weekly show, Feb 18, 2021: What patients want from healthcare facilities, and Post-COVID retail trends
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders from JLL and Landini Associates about what patients want from healthcare facilities, based on JLL's recent survey of 4,015 patients, and making online sales work for a retail sector recovery.
Market Data | Feb 17, 2021
Soaring prices and delivery delays for lumber and steel squeeze finances for construction firms already hit by pandemic
Association officials call for removing tariffs on key materials to provide immediate relief for hard-hit contractors and exploring ways to expand long-term capacity for steel, lumber and other materials,