As a result of the partially shutdown economy, businesses and organizations will continue to be hesitant to invest in modernized or new facilities, according to a mid-year update to the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) Consensus Construction Forecast. The trend ends an almost decade-long expansion in construction spending.
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—projects spending on nonresidential facilities will decline just over eight percent this year, and another five percent in 2021. The commercial building sector is expected to be the hardest hit, with spending projected to decline almost 12% this year and another eight percent in 2021. The industrial sector is slated to see declines of five percent this year and three percent next year. While institutional buildings will fare the best on the nonresidential side, spending on these facilities is projected to drop almost five percent this year, and another two percent next.
“As much of the economy was shut down in mid-March to help limit the spread of the pandemic, there was hope that after the initial steep decline in economic activity there could be an almost equally quick recovery,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “However, since mid-June economic growth has stalled. The timing coincides with a spike in new Covid-19 cases across the country, and the resulting pause or roll-back of reopening plans in many states.”
Complete details on the latest Consensus Construction Forecast can be found on AIA’s website.
Related Stories
Market Data | Apr 28, 2021
Construction employment declines in 203 metro areas from March 2020 to March 2021
The decline occurs despite homebuilding boom and improving economy.
Market Data | Apr 20, 2021
The pandemic moves subs and vendors closer to technology
Consigli’s latest market outlook identifies building products that are high risk for future price increases.
Market Data | Apr 20, 2021
Demand for design services continues to rapidly escalate
AIA’s ABI score for March rose to 55.6 compared to 53.3 in February.
Market Data | Apr 16, 2021
Construction employment in March trails March 2020 mark in 35 states
Nonresidential projects lag despite hot homebuilding market.
Market Data | Apr 13, 2021
ABC’s Construction Backlog slips in March; Contractor optimism continues to improve
The Construction Backlog Indicator fell to 7.8 months in March.
Market Data | Apr 9, 2021
Record jump in materials prices and supply chain distributions threaten construction firms' ability to complete vital nonresidential projects
A government index that measures the selling price for goods used construction jumped 3.5% from February to March.
Contractors | Apr 9, 2021
Construction bidding activity ticks up in February
The Blue Book Network's Velocity Index measures month-to-month changes in bidding activity among construction firms across five building sectors and in all 50 states.
Industry Research | Apr 9, 2021
BD+C exclusive research: What building owners want from AEC firms
BD+C’s first-ever owners’ survey finds them focused on improving buildings’ performance for higher investment returns.
Market Data | Apr 7, 2021
Construction employment drops in 236 metro areas between February 2020 and February 2021
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land and Odessa, Texas have worst 12-month employment losses.
Market Data | Apr 2, 2021
Nonresidential construction spending down 1.3% in February, says ABC
On a monthly basis, spending was down in 13 of 16 nonresidential subcategories.
