Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
ProConnect Events | Jan 17, 2023
3 ProConnect Single Family events for Home Builders and Product Manufacturers set for 2023
SGC Horizon, parent company of ProBuilder, will present 3 ProConnect Single Family Events this year. At ProConnect Single Family, Home Builders meet in confidential 20-minute sessions with Building Product Manufacturers to discuss upcoming projects, learn about new products, and discover practical solutions to technical problems.
University Buildings | Jan 17, 2023
Texas Christian University breaks ground on medical school for Dallas-Fort Worth region
Texas Christian University (TCU) has broken ground on the Anne Burnett Marion School of Medicine, which aims to help meet the expanding medical needs of the growing Dallas-Fort Worth region.
Green | Jan 17, 2023
Top 10 U.S. states for green building in 2022
The U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) released its annual ranking of U.S. states leading the way on green building, with Massachusetts topping the list. The USGBC ranking is based on LEED-certified gross square footage per capita over the past year.
Libraries | Jan 13, 2023
One of the world’s largest new libraries opens in Shanghai
Designed by Schmidt Hammer Lassen Architects, Shanghai Library East covers more than 1.2 million sf, 80% of it dedicated to community activity.
Religious Facilities | Jan 9, 2023
Santiago Calatrava-designed St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church opens in New York
In December, New York saw the reopening of the new St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church and National Shrine—the only religious structure destroyed on 9/11. Renowned architect and engineer Santiago Calatrava designed St. Nicholas Church to address the traditional Greek Orthodox liturgy while honoring the Church’s connection with the World Trade Center Memorial site.
Government Buildings | Jan 9, 2023
Blackstone, Starwood among real estate giants urging President Biden to repurpose unused federal office space for housing
The Real Estate Roundtable, a group including major real estate firms such as Brookfield Properties, Blackstone, Empire State Realty Trust, Starwood Capital, as well as multiple major banks and CRE professional organizations, recently sent a letter to President Joe Biden on the implications of remote work within the federal government.
Sustainability | Jan 9, 2023
Innovative solutions emerge to address New York’s new greenhouse gas law
New York City’s Local Law 97, an ambitious climate plan that includes fines for owners of large buildings that don’t significantly reduce carbon emissions, has spawned innovations to address the law’s provisions.
Fire and Life Safety | Jan 9, 2023
Why lithium-ion batteries pose fire safety concerns for buildings
Lithium-ion batteries have become the dominant technology in phones, laptops, scooters, electric bikes, electric vehicles, and large-scale battery energy storage facilities. Here’s what you need to know about the fire safety concerns they pose for building owners and occupants.
Market Data | Jan 6, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending rises in November 2022
Spending on nonresidential construction work in the U.S. was up 0.9% in November versus the previous month, and 11.8% versus the previous year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Industry Research | Dec 28, 2022
Following a strong year, design and construction firms view 2023 cautiously
The economy and inflation are the biggest concerns for U.S. architecture, construction, and engineering firms in 2023, according to a recent survey of AEC professionals by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
