Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
AEC Tech Innovation | Jan 24, 2023
ConTech investment weathered last year’s shaky economy
Investment in construction technology (ConTech) hit $5.38 billion last year (less than a 1% falloff compared to 2021) from 228 deals, according to CEMEX Ventures’ estimates. The firm announced its top 50 construction technology startups of 2023.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jan 24, 2023
Nashville boasts the largest soccer-specific stadium in the U.S. and Canada
At 30,105 seats and 530,000 sf, GEODIS Park, which opened in 2022, is the largest soccer-specific stadium in the U.S. and Canada. Created by design firms Populous and HASTINGS in collaboration with the Metro Nashville Sports Authority, GEODIS Park serves as the home of the Nashville Soccer Club as well as a venue for performances and events.
Concrete | Jan 24, 2023
Researchers investigate ancient Roman concrete to make durable, lower carbon mortar
Researchers have turned to an ancient Roman concrete recipe to develop more durable concrete that lasts for centuries and can potentially reduce the carbon impact of the built environment.
Architects | Jan 23, 2023
PSMJ report: The fed’s wrecking ball is hitting the private construction sector
Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 23, 2023
Long Beach, Calif., office tower converted to market rate multifamily housing
A project to convert an underperforming mid-century office tower in Long Beach, Calif., created badly needed market rate housing with a significantly lowered carbon footprint. The adaptive reuse project, composed of 203,177 sf including parking, created 106 apartment units out of a Class B office building that had been vacant for about 10 years.
Hotel Facilities | Jan 23, 2023
U.S. hotel construction pipeline up 14% to close out 2022
At the end of 2022’s fourth quarter, the U.S. construction pipeline was up 14% by projects and 12% by rooms year-over-year, according to Lodging Econometrics.
AEC Tech | Jan 19, 2023
Data-informed design, with Josh Fritz of LEO A DALY
Joshua Fritz, Leo A Daly's first Data Scientist, discusses how information analysis can improve building project outcomes.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 19, 2023
Chicago multifamily high-rise inspired by industrial infrastructure and L tracks
The recently unveiled design of The Row Fulton Market, a new Chicago high-rise residential building, draws inspiration from industrial infrastructure and L tracks in the historic Fulton Market District neighborhood. The 43-story, 300-unit rental property is in the city’s former meatpacking district, and its glass-and-steel façade reflects the arched support beams of the L tracks.
Urban Planning | Jan 18, 2023
David Adjaye unveils master plan for Cleveland’s Cuyahoga Riverfront
Real estate developer Bedrock and the city of Cleveland recently unveiled a comprehensive Cuyahoga Riverfront master plan that will transform the riverfront. The 15-to-20-year vision will redevelop Tower City Center, and prioritize accessibility, equity, sustainability, and resilience.
Museums | Jan 18, 2023
Building memory: Why interpretive centers matter in an era of social change
The last few years have borne witness to some of the most rapid cultural shifts in our nation’s long history. If the experience has taught us anything, it is that we must find a way to keep our history in view, while also putting it in perspective.