Nonresidential building activity on the rise for 2015: AIA Forecast

Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.

The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.

VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3^rd quarter of 2014

“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”

Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts	2014	2015

Overall nonresidential building	4.9%	8.0%

Commercial / industrial	9.9%	11.2%
Hotels	14.5%	9.2%
Office buildings	12.8%	13.3%
Industrial facilities	7.6%	9.2%
Retail	7.4%	10.4%

Institutional	-0.1%	5.8%
Amusement / recreation	3.7%	6.6%
Education	-0.1%	5.7%
Healthcare facilities	-1.8%	6.6%
Religious	-4.1%	0.7%
Public safety	-4.2%	3.3%

Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”

About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.

About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.

Learning objectives After reading this article, you should be able to: Understand issues of thermal performance and energy efficiency in relation to window and door systems; describe optimal detailing of the window-wall interface and how it contributes to building performance, sustainability, and occupant well-being; understand how durability contributes to sustainable windows/doors; and list sustainable O&M requirements for window and door systems.

| Jul 21, 2011

Falling Architecture Billings Index reflects decrease in design demands

This months Architecture Billings Index (ABI), provided by the American Institute of Architects, is almost a full point lower than last month’s reported score. June’s reading of 47.2 was short of the required 50 to achieve billings increases, making July’s reading of 46.3 an unwelcome sign of market tidings.