Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Sep 23, 2011
ABI turns positive after four monthly declines
On the heels of a period of weakness in design activity, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) took a sudden upturn in August.
| Sep 23, 2011
Under 40 Leadership Summit
Building Design+Construction’s Under 40 Leadership Summit takes place October 26-28, 2011 Hotel at the Monteleone in New Orleans. Discounted hotel rate deadline: October 2, 2011.
| Sep 20, 2011
Jeanne Gang wins MacArthur Fellowship
Jeanne Gang, a 2011 MacArthur Fellowship winner described by the foundation as "an architect challenging the aesthetic and technical possibilities of the art form in a wide range of structures."
| Sep 20, 2011
Francis Cauffman wins two IDA design awards
The PA/NJ/DE Chapter of the International Interior Design Association (IIDA) has presented the Francis Cauffman architecture firm with two awards: the Best Interior Design of 2011 for the W. L. Gore offices in Elkton, MD, and the President’s Choice Award for St. Joseph’s Regional Medical Center in Paterson, NJ.
| Sep 20, 2011
PPG, Pleotint to co-market environmentally adaptive glazing technology with low-e glass
Laminated between two lites of glass, SRT interlayer may be used monolithically or within an insulating glass unit.
| Sep 19, 2011
Portland team hired as LEED and commissioning consultants for $5.5B downtown sustainable project in Qatar
The $5.5 billion sustainable downtown regeneration project underway by Msheireb Properties will transform a 76 acres site at the centre of Doha, Qatar’s capital city, recreating a way of living that is rooted in Qatari culture, attracting residents back to the city center and reversing the trend for decentralization.
| Sep 16, 2011
Chicago Architecture Foundation partners with seven renowned architects to re-imagine Chicago neighborhoods
Design on the Edge presents plans created by seven teams of nine Chicago-based architects to reimagine seven of the city’s neighborhoods to encourage street life, retail districts and dense housing around the existing “L” transit system.
| Sep 14, 2011
USGBC L.A. Chapter's Green Gala features Jason McLennan as keynote speaker
The Los Angeles Chapter of the nonprofit USGBC will launch its Sustainable Innovation Awards this year during the chapter's 7th Annual Green Gala on Thursday, November 3.
| Sep 14, 2011
Lend Lease’s role in 9/11 Memorial & Museum
Lend Lease is honored to be the general contractor for the National September 11 Memorial & Museum project at the World Trade Center site in New York City.
| Sep 14, 2011
Thornton Tomasetti’s Poon named to the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat’s Board of Trustees
During his 30-plus years of experience, Poon has been responsible for the design and construction of super high-rise structures, mixed-used buildings, hotels, airports, arenas and residential buildings worldwide.