Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Nov 4, 2011
Mortenson Construction builds its fifth wind facility In Illinois
Shady Oaks Wind Farm is under construction near Compton, Ill.
| Nov 4, 2011
CSI and ICC Evaluation Service agree to reference GreenFormat in ICC-ES Environmental Reports?
ICC-ES currently references CSI's MasterFormat and other formats in all of its evaluation reports. The MOU will add GreenFormat references.
| Nov 4, 2011
McCarthy completes construction of South Region High School No. 2 in Los Angeles
Despite rain delays and scope changes, the $96.7 million high school was completed nearly two-months ahead of schedule.
| Nov 4, 2011
Two Thornton Tomasetti projects win NCSEA’s 2011 Excellence in Structural Engineering Awards
Altra Sede Regione Lombardia and Bank of Oklahoma Center both recognized.
| Nov 3, 2011
GREC Architects announces opening of the Westin Abu Dhabi Golf Resort and Spa
The hotel was designed by GREC and an international team of consultants to enhance the offerings of the Abu Dhabi Golf Club without imposing upon the dramatic landscapes of the elite golf course.
| Nov 3, 2011
Hardin Construction tops out Orlando Embassy Suites
The project began in April 2011 and is expected to open in fall 2012.
| Nov 3, 2011
2012 Pritzker Architecture Prize Ceremony to be held in China
The tradition of moving the event to world sites of architectural significance was established to emphasize that the prize is international, the laureates having been chosen from 16 different nations to date.
| Nov 3, 2011
DMR Architects welcomes two new staff members
Siro Gonzalez joins the staff as junior graduate architect and Megan Byers joins the staff as marketing assistant.
| Nov 2, 2011
Mega deals drive 28% increase in global engineering and construction merger and acquisition value
Financial investors lead mega deal activity, China most active country in global domestic deals.
| Nov 2, 2011
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. breaks ground on Alexandria Center in Cambridge, Mass.
307,000-sf building to be house to executive offices of Biogen Idec.