Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Nov 16, 2011
Architecture Billings Index moves upward
The Architecture Billings Index climbed nearly three points in October.
| Nov 16, 2011
CRSI recommends return to inch-pound markings
The intention of this resolution is for all new rollings of reinforcing steel products to be marked with inch-pound bar markings no later than January 1st, 2014.
| Nov 16, 2011
John Patelski joins Ghafari as executive vice president
As executive vice president, Patelski will be responsible for expanding the firm’s services in new strategic markets.
| Nov 15, 2011
Struggling economy demands construction industry embrace enterprise-wide risk management
In today’s business environment of high supply and limited demand, it has become especially vital for organizations in the construction sector to effectively manage risk.
| Nov 15, 2011
Suffolk Construction breaks ground on the Victor housing development in Boston
Project team to manage construction of $92 million, 377,000 square-foot residential tower.
| Nov 15, 2011
Miller joins Perkins Eastman as regional manager, Middle East and Northern Africa
Miller joins Perkins Eastman with more than 48 years of experience in architecture, design management, and construction administration for planning and infrastructure.
| Nov 14, 2011
Summit Design+Build selected at GC for new Office Concepts headquarters
The new headquarters will include 17,000 sf of office space and 15,000 sf of warehouse and feature 24 ft ceilings, an open floor plan, two conference rooms and one training room and will feature sustainable finishes throughout.
| Nov 14, 2011
Griffin Electric completes electrical work at Cary Arts Center
The Griffin Electric team was responsible for replacing the previous electrical service on-site with a 1000A, 480/277V service and providing electrical feeds for a new fire pump chiller, six air-handlers and two elevators.
| Nov 14, 2011
303 East 33rd Street building achieves LEED-NC
The 165,000 sf 12-story residential building is the first green development to be LEED certified in the Murray Hill neighborhood of Manhattan.