Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Adaptive Reuse | Aug 31, 2023
New York City creates team to accelerate office-to-residential conversions
New York City has a new Office Conversion Accelerator Team that provides a single point of contact within city government to help speed adaptive reuse projects. Projects that create 50 or more housing units from office buildings are eligible for this new program.
Codes and Standards | Aug 31, 2023
Community-led effort aims to prevent flooding in Chicago metro region
RainReady Calumet Corridor project favors solutions that use natural and low-impact projects such as rain gardens, bioswales, natural detention basins, green alleys, and permeable pavers, to reduce the risk of damaging floods.
Adaptive Reuse | Aug 31, 2023
Small town takes over big box
GBBN associate Claire Shafer, AIA, breaks down the firm's recreational adaptive reuse project for a small Indiana town.
Giants 400 | Aug 31, 2023
Top 35 Engineering Architecture Firms for 2023
Jacobs, AECOM, Alfa Tech, Burns & McDonnell, and Ramboll top the rankings of the nation's largest engineering architecture (EA) firms for nonresidential buildings and multifamily buildings work, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 30, 2023
Top 75 Engineering Firms for 2023
Kimley-Horn, WSP, Tetra Tech, Langan, and IMEG head the rankings of the nation's largest engineering firms for nonresidential buildings and multifamily buildings work, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Building Team | Aug 28, 2023
Navigating challenges in construction administration
Vessel Architecture's Rebekah Schranck, AIA, shares how the demanding task of construction administration can be challenging, but crucial.
Laboratories | Aug 24, 2023
Net-zero carbon science center breaks ground in Canada
Designed by Diamond Schmitt, the new Atlantic Science Enterprise Centre (ASEC) will provide federal scientists and partners with state-of-the-art space and equipment to collaborate on research opportunities.
Multifamily Housing | Aug 24, 2023
A multifamily design for multigenerational living
KTGY’s Family Flat concept showcases the benefits of multigenerational living through a multifamily design lens.
Multifamily Housing | Aug 23, 2023
Constructing multifamily housing buildings to Passive House standards can be done at cost parity
All-electric multi-family Passive House projects can be built at the same cost or close to the same cost as conventionally designed buildings, according to a report by the Passive House Network. The report included a survey of 45 multi-family Passive House buildings in New York and Massachusetts in recent years.
Regulations | Aug 23, 2023
Gas industry drops legal challenge to heat pump requirement in Washington building code
Gas and construction industry groups recently moved to dismiss a lawsuit they had filed to block new Washington state building codes that require heat pumps in new residential and commercial construction. The lawsuit contended that the codes harm the industry groups’ business, interfere with consumer energy choice, and don’t comply with federal law.