Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Resiliency | Sep 11, 2023
FEMA names first communities for targeted assistance on hazards resilience
FEMA recently unveiled the initial designation of 483 census tracts that will be eligible for increased federal support to boost resilience to natural hazards and extreme weather. The action was the result of bipartisan legislation, the Community Disaster Resilience Zones Act of 2022. The law aims to help localities most at risk from the impacts of climate change to build resilience to natural hazards.
MFPRO+ Research | Sep 11, 2023
Conversions of multifamily dwellings to ‘mansions’ leading to dwindling affordable stock
Small multifamily homes have historically provided inexpensive housing for renters and buyers, but developers have converted many of them in recent decades into larger, single-family units. This has worsened the affordable housing crisis, say researchers.
Engineers | Sep 8, 2023
Secrets of a structural engineer
Walter P Moore's Scott Martin, PE, LEED AP, DBIA, offers tips and takeaways for young—and veteran—structural engineers in the AEC industry.
Healthcare Facilities | Sep 8, 2023
Modern healthcare interiors: Healing and care from the outside in
CO Architects shares design tips for healthcare interiors, from front desk to patient rooms.
Designers | Sep 5, 2023
Optimizing interior design for human health
Page Southerland Page demonstrates how interior design influences our mood, mental health, and physical comfort.
K-12 Schools | Sep 5, 2023
CHPS launches program to develop best practices for K-12 school modernizations
The non-profit Collaborative for High Performance Schools (CHPS) recently launched an effort to develop industry-backed best practices for school modernization projects. The Minor Renovations Program aims to fill a void of guiding criteria for school districts to use to ensure improvements meet a high-performance threshold.
Market Data | Sep 5, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending increased 0.1% in July 2023
National nonresidential construction spending grew 0.1% in July, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.08 trillion and is up 16.5% year over year.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Sep 1, 2023
New Tennessee Titans stadium conceived to maximize types of events that can be hosted
The new Tennessee Titans stadium was conceived to maximize the number and type of events that the facility can host. In addition to serving as the home of the NFL’s Titans, the facility will be a venue for numerous other sporting, entertainment, and civic events. The 1.7-million sf, 60,000-seat, fully enclosed stadium will be built on the east side of the current stadium campus.
Mass Timber | Sep 1, 2023
Community-driven library project brings CLT to La Conner, Wash.
The project, designed by Seattle-based architecture firm BuildingWork, was conceived with the history and culture of the local Swinomish Indian Tribal Community in mind.
Office Buildings | Aug 31, 2023
About 11% of U.S. office buildings could be suitable for green office-to-residential conversions
A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper from researchers at New York University and Columbia Business School indicates that about 11% of U.S. office buildings may be suitable for conversion to green multifamily properties.