Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Feb 13, 2013
Fast Company selects 'most innovative' architecture firms
Business innovation magazine Fast Company has released a list of 10 "most innovative" architectural practices, worldwide.
| Feb 12, 2013
OMA's 'perimeter core' design wins competition for Essence Financial Building in Shenzhen
OMA partners David Gianotten and Rem Koolhaas rethink traditional office tower design with a plan that shifts the building's core to the edge for large, unobstructed plans.
| Feb 11, 2013
AIA elevates 122 members and seven international architects to the College of Fellows
The 2013 Jury of Fellows from the American Institute of Architects (AIA) elevated 122 AIA members to its prestigious College of Fellows, an honor awarded to members who have made significant contributions to the profession. The 2013 Fellows will be honored at an investiture ceremony at the 2013 National AIA Convention and Design Exposition in Denver.
| Feb 8, 2013
5 factors to consider when designing a shade system
Designing a shade system is more complex than picking out basic white venetian blinds. Here are five elements to consider when designing an interior shade system.
| Feb 8, 2013
Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum’s new wing voted Boston’s 'most beautiful new building'
Bostonians voted the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum's new wing the People's Choice Award winner for 2012, honoring the project as the city's "most beautiful new building" for the calendar year. The new wing, designed by Renzo Piano and Stantec, beat out three other projects on the short list.
| Feb 6, 2013
Arcadia (Calif.) High School opens $20 million performing arts center
A 60-year old wish for the community of Arcadia has finally come true with the opening of Arcadia Unified School District’s new $20 million Performing Arts Center.
| Feb 6, 2013
CSI: Revitalizing the brand to achieve the mission
CSI is revitalizing its brand as part of its continued pursuit of its mission: improving facility performance through better communication in the commercial-level construction industry.
| Feb 5, 2013
8 eye-popping wood building projects
From 100-foot roof spans to novel reclaimed wood installations, the winners of the 2013 National Wood Design Awards push the envelope in wood design.
