Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Feb 14, 2013
5 radical trends in outpatient facility design
Building Design+Construction combed the healthcare design and construction sector to evaluate the latest developments in outpatient facility designs. Here are five trends to watch.
| Feb 14, 2013
Boxman Studios launches shipping container buildings division
Boxman Studios has launched a new division aimed at sustainable solutions for the Built Environment. The Boxman Studios Buildings Division will focus on the adaptive use of decommissioned shipping containers as architectural elements and even complete buildings.
Smart Buildings | Feb 14, 2013
Minneapolis joins energy benchmarking trend for commercial buildings
Minneapolis is the latest major metro to require large commercial buildings to benchmark and disclose their energy and water use.
| Feb 14, 2013
Peter Rutti named Director of Design of Westlake Reed Leskosky’s Phoenix studio
Peter W. Rutti, AIA, Associate Principal and Project Director of Westlake Reed Leskosky, has been appointed Director of Design of the Phoenix, Arizona studio of the nationally recognized architects, engineers, and technology designers. The announcement recognizes the design excellence, leadership, and continued growth of the national and international practice of the integrated design firm in the western region.
| Feb 14, 2013
Peter Bardwell named 2013 president of the American College of Healthcare Architects
The Board of Regents of the American College of Healthcare Architects (ACHA) has named Peter L. Bardwell, FAIA, FACHA of Columbus, Ohio as 2013 national President.
| Feb 13, 2013
Department store concept by OMA's Koolhaas, Alsaka draws inspiration from open-air Arab marketplaces
The Exhibition Hall, a retail concept planned in Kuwait City's 360° Mall, will meld cultural and commerce spaces in a series of galleries reminiscent of the long passages of the souq—traditional, open-air marketplaces found in Arab cities.
| Feb 13, 2013
China plans new car-free city
A new urban development near Chengdu, China, will provide new housing for ~80,000 people, surrounded by green space.
| Feb 13, 2013
Advanced urbanism is focus of new MIT research center
MIT Center for Advanced Urbanism will seek 21st Century planning solutions, starting with infrastructure design issues.
| Feb 13, 2013
'Vegetative tower' apartments to revive NYC site
A Manhattan site formerly slated for development with a "tower of cubes"—a now-defunct project by Santiago Calatrava—will be revived with a 998-foot, 300,000-sf apartment building by Morali Architects.