Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Feb 12, 2014
First Look: Futuristic Silicon Valley campus designed to draw tech startups
The curved campus will consist of four different buildings, one exclusively for amenities like a coffee bar, bike shop, and bank.
| Feb 12, 2014
IIT's College of Architecture launches the Mies Crown Hall Americas Prize
Awarded biennially with a $50,000 prize, the program will recognize the most distinguished architectural works built on the North and South American continents in the preceding two years.
| Feb 11, 2014
Adobe Photoshop update features new 3D printing capabilities
Available as part of an update to Photoshop Creative Cloud, the tool enables users to easily and reliably build, refine, preview, prepare, and print 3D designs.
| Feb 10, 2014
Proposed parking garage will sandwich vehicles between housing and retail space
Architecture firm Brisac Gonzalez says that the design "will introduce different activities after parking hours."
| Feb 10, 2014
Architecture Design Collaborative announces firm opening in Southern California
Today, Architecture Design Collaborative officially announces the launch of its firm providing a full range of architecture and interior design services nationwide. Architecture Design Collaborative offers architectural design services, comprehensive interior design services, developer collaboration, direct tenant improvement, repositioning and site planning.
| Feb 10, 2014
Ball State to host Geothermal Conference on design, drilling and equipment - April 10, 2014
To best serve the industry, Ball State University has organized a single day conference in which participants will be able to exchange technical notes, develop understandings and share experiences with design, drilling, and equipment issues related to geothermal ground source heat pump technology.
| Feb 7, 2014
DOE, Autodesk team to overhaul the EnergyPlus simulation program
The update will allow a larger ecosystem of developers to contribute updates to the code in order to improve performance and decrease the time required to run energy model simulations.
| Feb 7, 2014
Meet the new Fellows: AIA elevates 143 to College of Fellows
The AIA College of Fellows is an honor awarded to members who have made significant contributions to the architectural profession.
| Feb 7, 2014
Bernards announces executive leadership realignment
Changes reflect long-term growth plans as builder enters its fifth decade.
| Feb 7, 2014
Zaha Hadid's 'white crystal' petroleum research center taking shape in the desert [slideshow]
Like a crystalline form still in the state of expansion, the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center will rise from the desert in dramatic fashion, with a network of bright-white, six-sided cells combining to form an angular, shell-like façade.