Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Feb 14, 2014
Scrap tires used to boost masonry blocks at Missouri University of S&T
Research could lead to blocks that use waste material and have seismic and insulating benefits.
| Feb 14, 2014
Giant interactive pinwheel adds fun to museum exterior
The proposed design for the Santa Cruz Museum of Art and History features a 10-foot pinwheel that can be activated by passersby.
| Feb 14, 2014
First look: Kentucky's Rupp Arena to get re-clad as part of $310M makeover
Rupp Arena will get a 40-foot high glass façade and a new concourse, but will retain many of its iconic design elements.
| Feb 14, 2014
Must see: Developer stacks shipping containers atop grain silos to create student housing tower
Mill Junction will house up to 370 students and is supported by 50-year-old grain silos.
| Feb 14, 2014
The Technology Report 2014: Top tech tools and trends for AEC professionals
In this special five-part report, Building Design+Construction explores how Building Teams throughout the world are utilizing advanced robotics, 3D printers, drones, data-driven design, and breakthroughs in building information modeling to gain efficiencies and create better buildings.
| Feb 14, 2014
Crowdsourced Placemaking: How people will help shape architecture
The rise of mobile devices and social media, coupled with the use of advanced survey tools and interactive mapping apps, has created a powerful conduit through which Building Teams can capture real-time data on the public. For the first time, the masses can have a real say in how the built environment around them is formed—that is, if Building Teams are willing to listen.
| Feb 13, 2014
University officials sound off on net zero energy buildings
As part of its ongoing ZNE buildings research project, Sasaki Associates, in collaboration with Buro Happold, surveyed some 500 campus designers and representatives on the top challenges and opportunities for achieving net-zero energy performance on university and college campuses.
| Feb 13, 2014
3 keys to designing freestanding emergency departments
Having physically disassociated from a central hospital, FEDs must overcome the particular challenges associated with a satellite location, namely a lack of awareness, appeal, and credibility. Gresham, Smith & Partners' Kristin Herman-Druc offers three keys to success.
| Feb 13, 2014
Why you should start with a builder
They say the best way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time. Expanding your building or constructing a new structure for your business, church, or school isn’t all that different. Attacking it is best done in small, deliberate pieces.
| Feb 13, 2014
Related Companies, LargaVista partner to develop mixed-use tower in SoHo
The site is located at the gateway to the booming SoHo retail market, where Class A office space is scarce yet highly in demand.