Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Education Facilities | Jul 14, 2015
Chile selects architects for Subantarctic research center
Promoting ecological tourism is one of this facility’s goals
BIM and Information Technology | Jul 14, 2015
New city-modeling software quantifies the movement of urban dwellers
UNA for Rhino 3D helps determine the impact that urban design can have on where pedestrians go.
Industrial Facilities | Jul 14, 2015
Tesla may seek to double size of Gigafactory in Nevada
Tesla Motors purchased an additional 1,200 acres next to the Gigafactory and is looking to buy an additional 350 acres.
BIM and Information Technology | Jul 14, 2015
Nation’s first 'drone park' breaks ground in North Dakota
This is one of six testing sites around the country that are developing flight standards and evaluating the utility of drones for different tasks.
Sponsored | Building Team | Jul 10, 2015
Are you the wrong type of ‘engaged’ leader?
Much of what’s written about employee engagement focuses on how leaders can help their employees become more involved at work. But what about the leaders themselves?
Architects | Jul 9, 2015
NCARB: Record number of aspiring architects on path toward licensure
More than 37,170 design professionals either reported hours through the Intern Development Program or tested for the Architect Registration Examination last year, according to a new NCARB report.
Architects | Jul 7, 2015
Why AEC firms should be cultivating 'visible experts'
A new study pinpoints the true dollar value of having knowledge leaders and market shapers on your team.
Green | Jul 7, 2015
Philips sheds new light on growing fresh food indoors
A research center in The Netherlands is testing the latest techniques in urban farming.
BIM and Information Technology | Jul 6, 2015
BIM/VDC training is more than learning the features
Training can be a taxing experience for both the class and the instructor. CASE's Nathan Miller offers four ways to make training more relevant to practitioners.
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 6, 2015
The main noisemakers in healthcare facilities: behavior and technology
Over the past few decades, numerous research studies have concluded that noise in hospitals can have a deleterious effect on patient care and recovery.