Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Green | Jul 23, 2015
NASA: U.S. headed for worst droughts in a millennium
Data from NASA shows carbon emissions could be the driving force behind devastating water shortages and record droughts in the western U.S.
Airports | Jul 22, 2015
MUST SEE: JFK airport taps Gensler to design terminal for animals
Pets can enjoy luxurious spa and grooming services before being transported directly to their flight from the terminal.
Office Buildings | Jul 21, 2015
Finally! There's a workplace trend that’s worth embracing
There’s a realization by corporate real estate executives that in order to create a successful workplace, there must be alignment between their people, their place, and the tools they have to do their jobs.
University Buildings | Jul 21, 2015
Maker spaces: Designing places to test, break, and rebuild
Gensler's Kenneth Fisher and Keller Roughton highlight recent maker space projects at MIT and the University of Nebraska that provide just the right mix of equipment, tools, spaces, and disciplines to spark innovation.
Architects | Jul 21, 2015
Architecture Billings Index at highest mark since 2007
This is the first month in 2015 that all regions are reporting positive business conditions, said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.
BIM and Information Technology | Jul 20, 2015
New stylus brings digital sketching to the next level
Without buttons, users can change the weight of the stylus’ stroke.
Architects | Jul 20, 2015
New York design competition looks to shed the sidewalk shed
New York, which has nearly 200 total miles of sidewalk sheds, is seeking a concept that is practical but that also looks good.
Cultural Facilities | Jul 19, 2015
SET Architects wins design competition for Holocaust Memorial
The design for the memorial in Bologna, Italy, is dominated by two large metal monolithic structures that represent the oppressive wooden bunks in concentration camps in Germany during World War II.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jul 17, 2015
Japan scraps Zaha Hadid's Tokyo Olympic Stadium project
The rising price tag was one of the downfalls of the 70-meter-tall, 290,000-sm stadium. In 2014, the cost of the project was 163 billion yen, but that rose to 252 billion yen this year.
Cultural Facilities | Jul 16, 2015
Louisville group plans to build world's largest disco ball
The sphere would more than double the size of the current record holder.