Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 28, 2015
7 (more) steps toward a quieter hospital
Every hospital has its own “culture” of loudness and quiet. Jacobs’ Chris Kay offers steps to a therapeutic auditory environment.
Healthcare Facilities | Aug 28, 2015
Shhh!!! 6 ways to keep the noise down in new and existing hospitals
There’s a ‘decibel war’ going on in the nation’s hospitals. Progressive Building Teams are leading the charge to give patients quieter healing environments.
Architects | Aug 28, 2015
How to transition leadership within your architecture firm, Part 2
Close to retiring? Without a plan for leadership transition, you might not foster candidates who will be capable of taking over the reins, says Whitehorn Financial's Steve Whitehorn.
Retail Centers | Aug 27, 2015
Vallco Shopping Mall renovation plans include 'largest green roof in the world'
The new owners of the mall in Cupertino, Calif., intend to transform the outdated shopping mall into a multi-purpose complex, topped by a 30-acre park.
Libraries | Aug 27, 2015
Barack Obama Foundation begins search for presidential library architect
Both national and foreign firms will compete for chance to design the Chicago-based Presidential Center.
Architects | Aug 27, 2015
How to transition leadership within your architecture firm, Part 1
In order for your firm to thrive and preserve your legacy after retirement, it is essential that you create a strategic plan to not only transition ownership of your firm but its leadership as well.
Mixed-Use | Aug 26, 2015
Innovation districts + tech clusters: How the ‘open innovation’ era is revitalizing urban cores
In the race for highly coveted tech companies and startups, cities, institutions, and developers are teaming to form innovation hot pockets.
Office Buildings | Aug 19, 2015
Good design can combat open-office issues
Three tricks to maintain privacy and worker production in a cube-less world, according to GS&P's Jack E. Weber
Architects | Aug 19, 2015
Despite dip, architecture billings remain strong
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the July ABI score was 54.7, down a point from a mark of 55.7 in June.
Architects | Aug 17, 2015
Historic power plant converted to modern offices in Minnesota
A landmark power plant in Owatonna, Minn., damaged in a 2010 flood has new life as the headquarters of Owatonna Public Utilities following a renovation by architects Leo A. Daly.