Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Architects | Sep 24, 2015
Supertall buildings vie for dominance along Chicago’s skyline
The latest proposals pit designs by Rafael Viñoly, Jeanne Gang, and Helmut Jahn.
Architects | Sep 24, 2015
From Gehry to the High Line: What makes a project a game-changer?
Each year, there are a handful of projects that significantly advance the AEC industry or a particular building type. Send us your game-changing projects for BD+C’s January 2016 special report.
Cultural Facilities | Sep 24, 2015
Bakpak Architects' 'pottery courtyard' concept in Poland incorporates local heritage
The multifunctional building proposed for Rzeszow, Poland, looks like it was handcrafted on a potter’s wheel.
Modular Building | Sep 23, 2015
SOM and DOE unveil 3D-printed, off-the-grid building
The Additive Manufacturing Integrated Energy (AMIE) building features a high-performance shell with a photovoltaic roof and built-in natural gas generator.
Airports | Sep 23, 2015
JFK Airport's dormant TWA terminal will be reborn as a hotel
After 15 years of disuse, the Googie architecture-inspired TWA Flight Center at New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport will be transformed into a hotel. Gizmodo reports that the city’s Port Authority chose a renovation proposal from Jet Blue this week.
Architects | Sep 23, 2015
Architecture billings dip in August, but no 'cause for concern' says AIA economist
The American Institute of Architects reported the August ABI score was 49.1, down from a mark of 54.7 in July. This score reflects a slight decrease in design services.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Sep 21, 2015
Tokyo Olympic Stadium saga ends for Zaha Hadid
After resubmitting a bid, the firm will not design the main venue for the 2020 Olympics after all.
University Buildings | Sep 21, 2015
6 lessons in campus planning
For campus planning, focus typically falls on repairing the bricks and mortar without consideration of program priorities. Gensler's Pamela Delphenich offers helpful tips and advice.
Museums | Sep 21, 2015
Ma Yansong and Jeanne Gang revise Chicago lakefront Lucas Museum
New renderings of the proposed Lucas Museum show a scaled-down building on more green space.
Designers | Sep 21, 2015
Can STEAM power the disruptive change needed in education?
Companies need entrepreneurial and creative workers that possess critical thinking skills that allow them to function in collaborative teams. STEAM (science, technology, engineering, arts, and mathematics) education might be the solution.
