Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Codes and Standards | Jun 2, 2022
New design guide for hybrid steel-mass timber frames released
The American Institute of Steel Construction (AISC) has released the first-ever set of U.S. recommendations for hybrid steel frames with mass timber floors, according to a news release.
Mass Timber | Jun 2, 2022
Brooklyn is home to New York City’s first mass timber condo building
In the Brooklyn neighborhood of Park Slope, the newly completed Timber House is New York City’s first mass timber condominium building and its largest mass timber project (by height and square footage).
Codes and Standards | Jun 1, 2022
HKS, U. of Texas Dallas partner on brain health study
HKS and The University of Texas at Dallas’ Center for BrainHealth are conducting a six-month study to improve the way the firm’s employees work, collaborate, and innovate, both individually and as an organization, according to a news release.
Building Team | Jun 1, 2022
Pennsylvania’s Longwood Gardens to get a $250 million transformation
Longwood Gardens, a botanical garden with about 1,100 acres in Pennsylvania’s Brandywine Valley, recently announced plans to transform its core area of conservatory gardens.
Mass Timber | May 31, 2022
Tall mass timber buildings number 139 worldwide
An audit of tall mass timber buildings turned up 139 such structures around the world either complete, under construction, or proposed.
Hotel Facilities | May 31, 2022
Checking out: Tips for converting hotels to housing
Many building owners are considering repositioning their hotels into another property type, such as senior living communities and rental apartments. Here's advice for getting started.
Museums | May 31, 2022
University of Texas at Dallas breaks ground on new 12-acre cultural district
The University of Texas at Dallas (UT Dallas) recently broke ground on the Crow Museum of Asian Art, the first phase of a new 12-acre cultural district on campus.
BAS and Security | May 26, 2022
Can your intelligent building outsmart hackers?
ESD's security services studio leader Coleman Wolf offers tips, advice, and lessons for protecting real estate assets from cyberattacks.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | May 26, 2022
WNBA practice facility will offer training opportunities for female athletes and youth
The Seattle Storm’s Center for Basketball Performance will feature amenities for community youth, including basketball courts, a nutrition center, and strength and conditioning training spaces.
Multifamily Housing | May 25, 2022
9 noteworthy multifamily developments to debut in 2022
A 1980s-era shopping mall turned mixed-use housing and a mid-rise multifamily tower with unusual rowhomes highlight the innovative multifamily developments to debut recently.