Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Building Team | Jun 17, 2022
Data analytics in design and construction: from confusion to clarity and the data-driven future
Data helps virtual design and construction (VDC) teams predict project risks and navigate change, which is especially vital in today’s fluctuating construction environment.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jun 17, 2022
U. of Georgia football facility expansion provides three floors for high-performance training
A major expansion of the University of Georgia’s football training facility has been completed.
Building Team | Jun 16, 2022
Hybrid work expected to reduce office demand by 9%
Businesses are slowly but consistently transitioning to a permanent hybrid work environment, according to a senior economist at Econometric Advisors.
Building Team | Jun 16, 2022
USGBC announces more than 23 million square feet of LEED certified net zero space
Today, the U.S. Green Building Council announced nearly 100 net zero certifications earned under the LEED Zero program, representing more than 23 million square feet of space.
AEC Business Innovation | Jun 15, 2022
Cognitive health takes center stage in the AEC industry
Two prominent architecture firms are looking to build on the industry’s knowledge base on design’s impact on building occupant health and performance with new research efforts.
Market Data | Jun 15, 2022
ABC’s construction backlog rises in May; contractor confidence falters
Associated Builders and Contractors reports today that its Construction Backlog Indicator increased to nine months in May from 8.8 months in April, according to an ABC member survey conducted May 17 to June 3. The reading is up one month from May 2021.
Codes and Standards | Jun 15, 2022
Waived tariffs on solar panels expected to boost solar power
The Biden Administration recently waived tariffs on solar panels from four countries in a move advocates say will accelerate the clean energy transition and benefit national security.
Cultural Facilities | Jun 15, 2022
Gehry-designed Children’s Institute aims to foster community outreach in L.A.’s Watts neighborhood
The Children’s Institute (CII) in Los Angeles will open a 200,000-sf campus designed by Frank Gehry this summer.
Building Team | Jun 14, 2022
Thinking beyond the stadium: the future of district development
Traditional sports and entertainment venues are fading as teams and entertainment entities strive to move toward more diversified entertainment districts.
Codes and Standards | Jun 14, 2022
Hospitals’ fossil fuel use trending downward, but electricity use isn’t declining as much
The 2021 Hospital Energy and Water Benchmarking Survey by Grumman|Butkus Associates found that U.S. hospitals’ use of fossil fuels is declining since the inception of the annual survey 25 years ago, but electricity use is dipping more slowly.