Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Apr 19, 2012
KTGY Group’s Arista Uptown Apartments in Broomfield, Colo. completed
First of eight buildings highlights unique amenities.
| Apr 19, 2012
Nauset begins work on $20M Joint Forces HQ at Hanscom AFB
3D imaging key to project timetable and cost containment.
| Apr 19, 2012
HBD Construction names Steven Meeks vice president
Meeks will provide expertise for the company in its many diverse areas of construction projects including health care, senior living, education and retail.
| Apr 18, 2012
Lafarge moving North American headquarters to Illinois
Lafarge CEO John Stull says the factors in their decision were location in the Midwest and area transportation.
| Apr 18, 2012
Positive conditions persist for Architecture Billings Index
The AIA reported the March ABI score was 50.4, following a mark of 51.0 in February; greatest demand is for commercial building projects.
| Apr 18, 2012
Syska Hennessy re-launches Information and Communication Technology practice
The ICT practice will focus a blend of products including Information Technology, Security, Audiovisual, Building Automation, Fire Life Safety, Medical Communications and Intelligent Building Systems.
| Apr 18, 2012
Perkins+Will designs new complex for Johns Hopkins Hosptial
The Charlotte R. Bloomberg Children’s Center and the Sheikh Zayed Tower create transformative patient-centric care.
| Apr 18, 2012
BBS Architects & Engineers acquires Ward Associates
The merged companies’ on-going project portfolio valued at $220 million.
| Apr 17, 2012
Princeton Review releases “Guide to 322 Green Colleges”
The guide profiles 322 institutions of higher education in the U.S. and Canada that demonstrate notable commitments to sustainability in their academic offerings, campus infrastructure, activities and career preparation.
| Apr 17, 2012
FMI report examines federal construction trends
Given the rapid transformations occurring in the federal construction sector, FMI examines the key forces accelerating these changes, as well as their effect on the industry.