Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| May 1, 2012
Gilbane to build $100 million cranberries manufacturing facility
Gilbane to provide design build services for a new Lean manufacturing facility for Ocean Spray Cranberries Inc., beverage products.
| May 1, 2012
Construction is underway on MLK ambulatory care center in L.A.
Featuring a variety of sustainable features, the new facility is designed to achieve LEED Gold Certification.
| Apr 30, 2012
Virginia Commonwealth unveils design for Arts Institution
Institute for Contemporary Art will serve as a catalyst for exhibitions, programs, research and collaboration.
| Apr 30, 2012
Summit Design + Build completes build-out for Office Concepts
The project is seeking LEED ID Silver certification from the U.S. Green Building Council.
| Apr 30, 2012
HSA Commercial selected as consultant for Orland Park’s Main Street Triangle project
HSA will be responsible for designing an overall mixed-use merchandise plan, attracting a unique retail tenant mix and completing leases with prospective tenants.
| Apr 30, 2012
Gilbane to manage retrofit of the Fraunhofer CSE R&B structure
Building is a first-of-its-kind research and demonstration building for sustainable technologies in Boston's Innovation District.
| Apr 30, 2012
KBE Building completes renovation at the ConnCAT
The $1.2 million project consisted of a 16,000-sf interior renovation.
| Apr 27, 2012
GreenExpo365.com to offer webinars on EPA’s WaterSense Program
Architects and builders interested in developing water-efficient buildings invited to attend free sessions featuring experts discussing water-efficient building practices.
| Apr 27, 2012
APA launches wood design web portal for building and design pros
Design professionals who are members of APA’s Professional Associates are automatically enrolled in the APA Designers Circle program.
| Apr 27, 2012
China Mobile selects Leo A Daly to design three buildings at its new HQ
LEO A DALY, in collaboration with Local Design Institute WDCE, wins competition to design Phase 2, Plot B, of Campus.
