Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Oct 20, 2017
Top 40 sports architecture firms
Populous, HOK, and HKS top BD+C’s ranking of the nation’s largest sports sector architecture and AE firms, as reported in the 2017 Giants 300 Report.
Giants 400 | Oct 19, 2017
Race for talent drives office designs
Is the shift toward attracting younger workers too much or not enough?
Sponsored | Designers | Oct 18, 2017
Universal design principles: Part 2
The CDC targets the bathroom as the most dangerous room in the house. Architects can use principles of Universal Design (UD) to reduce these hazards.
Giants 400 | Oct 17, 2017
Top 110 office architecture firms
Gensler, Jacobs, and HOK top BD+C’s ranking of the nation’s largest office sector architecture and AE firms, as reported in the 2017 Giants 300 Report.
Giants 400 | Oct 16, 2017
Data center market forecast: Clearly cloudy
Look for mission-critical construction to double in the next few years.
Resiliency | Oct 13, 2017
Resiliency takes center stage in new projects around the country
Projects like these, where resilience is central to their design and construction, are becoming more commonplace.
Architects | Oct 11, 2017
Architects to policymakers: Buildings are infrastructure, too
Left out of this ongoing national debate over infrastructure are the nation’s other public buildings: the libraries, community centers, courthouses, community college buildings, affordable housing developments, and justice facilities.
Giants 400 | Oct 11, 2017
Top 25 data center architecture firms
Jacobs, Corgan, and Gensler top BD+C’s ranking of the nation’s largest data center sector architecture and AE firms, as reported in the 2017 Giants 300 Report.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 9, 2017
6 new products for the multifamily construction market
Bamboo wall panels, an adaptable prep sink, and a two-tiered bike parking system are among the product innovations geared for multifamily buildings.
AEC Tech | Oct 6, 2017
How professional bias can sabotage industry transformation
Professional bias can take the form of change-resistant thinking that can keep transformational or innovative ambitions at bay. Tech consultant Nate Miller presents three kinds of bias that often emerge when a professional is confronted with new technology.
