Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Industry Research | Nov 28, 2017
2018 outlook: Economists point to slowdown, AEC professionals say ‘no way’
Multifamily housing and senior living developments head the list of the hottest sectors heading into 2018, according a survey of 356 AEC professionals.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 28, 2017
Elementary school, daycare campus will serve Toronto’s skyrise neighborhood
The $65 million Canoe Landing Campus brings much needed social infrastructure to the 20,000 residents of Toronto’s CityPlace towers.
Architects | Nov 28, 2017
Adding value through integrated technology requires a human touch
To help strike that delicate balance between the human and the high-tech, we must first have an in-depth understanding of our client’s needs as well as a manufacturer’s capabilities.
Architects | Nov 17, 2017
How to leverage historic tax credits
About 90% of the time prospective clients are not aware of historic tax credits.
Sponsored | Architects | Nov 16, 2017
Growing your AEC firm through an exceptional client experience
Many small AEC firms don’t feel they have the time to focus and create clear marketing messages.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 15, 2017
6 noteworthy multifamily developments: artists housing, tech lofts, resort-style senior living
These recently completed projects represent emerging trends and design innovations in the multifamily sector.
Architects | Nov 9, 2017
AECOM and Van Alen Institute announce four Urban SOS® 2017 finalists with bold ideas for creating more equitable cities
Multidisciplinary student teams were challenged to redefine the traditional “hour city” radius, providing broader access to opportunity.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 8, 2017
No place like home: LA’s The Six provides permanent supportive housing for veterans
The 52-unit development gives hope and dignity to homeless or disabled veterans and others in need.
Healthcare Facilities | Nov 6, 2017
Design isn’t enough to foster collaboration in healthcare and research spaces
A new Perkins Eastman white paper finds limited employee interaction at NYU Winthrop Hospital, a year after it opened.
Architects | Nov 6, 2017
How to start a negotiation: Begin as you mean to continue
How you start a negotiation often will determine where you end up, writes negotiation and mediation expert Brenda Radmacher.
