Multifamily housing will remain a robust market for A/E/C companies heading into 2020, according to the most recent results of PSMJ’s Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF) survey. For the third quarter of 2019, the survey found that less than 9% of the nearly 100 respondents doing multifamily work reported a decrease in proposal activity compared with the prior quarter, while more than 54% saw an increase.
The Multifamily market’s third quarter Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) of 46% marked the 31st consecutive quarter that the submarket exceeded an NPMI of 40%. The last time it was below that level was the third quarter of 2011.
PSMJ’s NPMI measures the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in proposal activity and those reporting a decrease, quarter over quarter. PSMJ has been using the QMF as a predictor of the A/E/C industry’s health since 2003, tracking 12 major markets and 58 submarkets every three months. The company chose proposal activity to gauge the industry’s long-term outlook because it is among the earliest stages of the project lifecycle. Approximately 200 firms participate in the survey each quarter.
The Senior and Assisted Living submarket also performed well with a third-quarter NPMI of 49%. Only 4 of the 86 responding firms working in the senior care submarket reported declining proposal activity. The Senior/Assisted Living market has also been a consistently stellar performer in the QMF. Its NPMI hasn’t dipped below 50% since the fourth quarter of 2012.
“Multifamily and Senior/Assisted Living have been two of the hottest markets for proposal activity for quite some time, not only among the Housing submarkets, but throughout all 58 submarkets,” says PSMJ’s Greg Hart, a consultant who also oversees the QMF. “It is remarkable that both have seen such steady proposal growth for so long. Very few submarkets have been this consistently strong throughout the 16-year history of our survey.”
Housing (all submarkets) recorded an NPMI of 40% in the third quarter, a potentially noteworthy drop from the 59% recorded in the second quarter. After ranking the second-highest of the 12 major markets measured in the second quarter, Housing fell completely out of the top five in the third quarter. Transportation (49%) and Healthcare (46%) were tops among major markets.
Among the other Housing submarkets, Condominiums recorded a respectable NPMI of 24%, its sixth consecutive quarter in the mid-20% range. Individual single-family homes (15%) and subdivisions (8%) trailed the Housing field in the third quarter, falling markedly from 25% and 23%, respectively, in the second quarter. PSMJ Director and Senior Consultant Dave Burstein, PE, notes that the results are still positive, if potentially troubling in the longer term. He adds that lower mortgage interest rates on the horizon are likely to spur a rebound in the single-family and subdivision subsectors.
PSMJ Resources, Inc., based in Newton, Massachusetts, is a publishing, executive education, and advisory company dedicated to serving architecture, engineering and construction (A/E/C) organizations worldwide.
Related Stories
Resiliency | Sep 30, 2022
Designing buildings for wildfire defensibility
Wold Architects and Engineers' Senior Planner Ryan Downs, AIA, talks about how to make structures and communities more fire-resistant.
Sponsored | Multifamily Housing | Sep 16, 2022
In-Stock Sheathing System Saves Multifamily Project Timeline
Multifamily Housing | Sep 15, 2022
Toronto’s B-Line Condominiums completed using prefabricated panels
B-Line Condos, Toronto, completed using Sto Panel Technology.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 15, 2022
Heat Pumps in Multifamily Projects
RMI's Lacey Tan gives the basics of heat pumps and how they can reduce energy costs and carbon emissions in apartment projects.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 14, 2022
27 new kitchen and bath products multifamily developers and AEC teams are using for the first time
Multifamily developers and AEC project teams are adopting new kitchen + bath products and systems for the first time, according to the MULTIFAMILY Design+Construction Kitchen+Bath Survey 2022.
Multifamily Housing | Sep 13, 2022
Take the Multifamily Kitchen + Bath survey – Maybe win one of 10 $50 gift cards
Preliminary results of 2022 Multifamily Design+Construction exclusive Kitchen + Bath survey.
Senior Living Design | Sep 8, 2022
What’s new with AQ: The top trends in active adult living
Today's 55-or-better buyers are ready to design their lives and their homes as they see fit. With so much growth on tap, builders and developers must stay apprised of trends related to home, environment, and culture of 55+ communities.
Mass Timber | Aug 30, 2022
Mass timber construction in 2022: From fringe to mainstream
Two Timberlab executives discuss the market for mass timber construction and their company's marketing and manufacturing strategies. Sam Dicke, Business Development Manager, and Erica Spiritos, Director of Preconstruction, Timberlab, speak with BD+C's John Caulfield.
Giants 400 | Aug 29, 2022
Top 50 Senior Living Facility Contractors + CM Firms for 2022
Whiting-Turner, Ryan Companies US, W.E. O'Neil Construction, and KBE Building Corp. top the ranking of the nation's largest senior living facility contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 29, 2022
Top 80 Senior Living Facility Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Perkins Eastman, Hord Coplan Macht, Ryan A+E, and Stantec top the ranking of the nation's largest senior living facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
