Multifamily housing will remain a robust market for A/E/C companies heading into 2020, according to the most recent results of PSMJ’s Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF) survey. For the third quarter of 2019, the survey found that less than 9% of the nearly 100 respondents doing multifamily work reported a decrease in proposal activity compared with the prior quarter, while more than 54% saw an increase.
The Multifamily market’s third quarter Net Plus/Minus Index (NPMI) of 46% marked the 31st consecutive quarter that the submarket exceeded an NPMI of 40%. The last time it was below that level was the third quarter of 2011.
PSMJ’s NPMI measures the difference between the percentage of firms reporting an increase in proposal activity and those reporting a decrease, quarter over quarter. PSMJ has been using the QMF as a predictor of the A/E/C industry’s health since 2003, tracking 12 major markets and 58 submarkets every three months. The company chose proposal activity to gauge the industry’s long-term outlook because it is among the earliest stages of the project lifecycle. Approximately 200 firms participate in the survey each quarter.
The Senior and Assisted Living submarket also performed well with a third-quarter NPMI of 49%. Only 4 of the 86 responding firms working in the senior care submarket reported declining proposal activity. The Senior/Assisted Living market has also been a consistently stellar performer in the QMF. Its NPMI hasn’t dipped below 50% since the fourth quarter of 2012.
“Multifamily and Senior/Assisted Living have been two of the hottest markets for proposal activity for quite some time, not only among the Housing submarkets, but throughout all 58 submarkets,” says PSMJ’s Greg Hart, a consultant who also oversees the QMF. “It is remarkable that both have seen such steady proposal growth for so long. Very few submarkets have been this consistently strong throughout the 16-year history of our survey.”
Housing (all submarkets) recorded an NPMI of 40% in the third quarter, a potentially noteworthy drop from the 59% recorded in the second quarter. After ranking the second-highest of the 12 major markets measured in the second quarter, Housing fell completely out of the top five in the third quarter. Transportation (49%) and Healthcare (46%) were tops among major markets.
Among the other Housing submarkets, Condominiums recorded a respectable NPMI of 24%, its sixth consecutive quarter in the mid-20% range. Individual single-family homes (15%) and subdivisions (8%) trailed the Housing field in the third quarter, falling markedly from 25% and 23%, respectively, in the second quarter. PSMJ Director and Senior Consultant Dave Burstein, PE, notes that the results are still positive, if potentially troubling in the longer term. He adds that lower mortgage interest rates on the horizon are likely to spur a rebound in the single-family and subdivision subsectors.
PSMJ Resources, Inc., based in Newton, Massachusetts, is a publishing, executive education, and advisory company dedicated to serving architecture, engineering and construction (A/E/C) organizations worldwide.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Jan 23, 2023
Long Beach, Calif., office tower converted to market rate multifamily housing
A project to convert an underperforming mid-century office tower in Long Beach, Calif., created badly needed market rate housing with a significantly lowered carbon footprint. The adaptive reuse project, composed of 203,177 sf including parking, created 106 apartment units out of a Class B office building that had been vacant for about 10 years.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 19, 2023
Chicago multifamily high-rise inspired by industrial infrastructure and L tracks
The recently unveiled design of The Row Fulton Market, a new Chicago high-rise residential building, draws inspiration from industrial infrastructure and L tracks in the historic Fulton Market District neighborhood. The 43-story, 300-unit rental property is in the city’s former meatpacking district, and its glass-and-steel façade reflects the arched support beams of the L tracks.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 19, 2023
Editorial call for Multifamily Affordable Housing project case studies - no cost to submit!
Building Design+Construction will feature a roundup of "Multifamily Affordable Housing" projects on BDCnetwork.com.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 12, 2023
8 noteworthy multifamily housing projects, including a refuge for unsheltered youth
Join us on a nationwide tour of notable new multifamily projects from around the country.
Senior Living Design | Jan 10, 2023
8 senior living communities that provide residents with memory care
Here are eight senior living communities that offer their residents memory care, an important service for residents who need this specialized care.
Government Buildings | Jan 9, 2023
Blackstone, Starwood among real estate giants urging President Biden to repurpose unused federal office space for housing
The Real Estate Roundtable, a group including major real estate firms such as Brookfield Properties, Blackstone, Empire State Realty Trust, Starwood Capital, as well as multiple major banks and CRE professional organizations, recently sent a letter to President Joe Biden on the implications of remote work within the federal government.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 9, 2023
New York City advances plan to build 500,000 new housing units
After New York Mayor Eric Adams announced a “Moonshot” plan to build 500,000 new housing units over the next 10 years in early December, he moved quickly to jumpstart the process.
Sustainability | Jan 9, 2023
Innovative solutions emerge to address New York’s new greenhouse gas law
New York City’s Local Law 97, an ambitious climate plan that includes fines for owners of large buildings that don’t significantly reduce carbon emissions, has spawned innovations to address the law’s provisions.
Fire and Life Safety | Jan 9, 2023
Why lithium-ion batteries pose fire safety concerns for buildings
Lithium-ion batteries have become the dominant technology in phones, laptops, scooters, electric bikes, electric vehicles, and large-scale battery energy storage facilities. Here’s what you need to know about the fire safety concerns they pose for building owners and occupants.
Multifamily Housing | Dec 29, 2022
San Jose is largest U.S. city to abolish minimum parking for new housing
San Jose, Calif., recently became the largest U.S. city to strike down minimum parking requirements for new housing development. The city reversed zoning devised in the 1950s that reputedly gave it the worst sprawl of parking space in northern California.
