The commercial property and casualty (P&C) market is driven by two powerful, albeit conflicting, forces: large catastrophic losses and excess capital. As a substantial part of real estate development is happening in areas exposed to floods, wildfires, severe storms, hurricanes and earthquakes, insurance companies are rethinking how to deploy their capital to manage aggregation in catastrophe exposed areas.
USI Insurance Services, a global insurance brokerage and consulting firm, recently released its 2019 Commercial Property & Casualty Market Outlook, which provides insight into the current dynamics of the property and casualty insurance market, as well as a deeper dive into covered sectors that include commercial real estate and construction, transportation, manufacturing/distribution, environmental, and aviation.
The report found a stable P&C industry in 2018, despite it having experienced five of the 15 costliest global catastrophes in the past two years, coupled with multiple large wildfires and other major loss events, which collectively caused in excess of $125 billion in total insured damages.
The P&C industry remains well capitalized, and its surplus now stands at $760 billion. Consequently, the industry has resisted significant and sustained market-wide rate increases, even as insured property losses from U.S. catastrophes alone went from $14.3 billion for 2.4 million claims from 33 catastrophes in 2010 to $101.9 billion for 5.2 million claims from 46 catastrophes in 2017, according to Property Claims Services and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
It remains to be seen whether such restraint is sustainable if catastrophic events continue to increase and wreak havoc. USI says while most insureds should expect a flat to plus-5% rate change, but cautions that current rate trends will be difficult to maintain if the frequency and severity of catastrophes don’t abate.
The report notes specifically that pricing challenges are likely to persist in specific coverage lines such as property-exposed accounts in wind-prone areas, habitational risks, and large commercial trucking fleets.
Carriers, says USI, are also more likely to ask for moderate-to-high rate increases for many insureds in the public company directors’ and officers’ space, employment practices liability and medical malpractice for healthcare providers in certain classes.
Within the commercial real estate sector, multifamily properties could have the hardest time finding willing insurers. Beyond the natural catastrophe losses in 2017 and 2018, multifamily portfolios are producing fire and water damage losses, causing some carriers to either exit this risk class entirely, or increase rates and deductibles even for low-loss level insureds. With overall segment capacity shrinking, insureds with exposures to natural catastrophe and below average loss history can expect significant rate increases.
This could be especially true for frame construction, due to numerous large fire losses in recent years.
Despite the frequency of catastrophic events, insurers have so far resisted steady and high rate increases. Image: USI
The prospects are a bit brighter for nonresidential commercial properties, whose owners, developers, and managers have a distinct advantage, says USI: Quality risks remain the focus of carrier capacity offerings. Nevertheless, portfolios exposed to natural catastrophe will require a disciplined approach to achieve an optimal outcome in the marketplace.
USI joins other market observers in its expectation that spending on commercial construction will rise in 2019. Total construction spending may produce a 4% increase in insurance premiums in 2019, compared to 2018, while rates remain mostly flat in certain jurisdictions.
For larger construction projects, safety, specialization, timeliness, and staying within budget remain the biggest risks. “With good risk management and the use of Controlled Insurance Programs (CIPs), insureds can avoid disruptions, reduce loss costs, and meet expectations of all parties who have an insurable risk,” USI’s states.
Its report found in commercial construction a greater emphasis on jobsite safety to reduce claims per man-hour. The widespread application of BIM is fostering open collaboration and new ideas that are helping to mitigate risk, too.
USI also comments on the renewed interest in modular and prefabricated construction, which brings with it benefits of quality control and worker safety. However, those methods also raise insurance-related concerns, such as how a general liability insurance policy would respond to a potential claim, and how employees should be categories within their workers compensation programs.
Related Stories
| Nov 27, 2013
Pediatric hospitals improve care with flexible, age-sensitive design
Pediatric hospitals face many of the same concerns as their adult counterparts. Inpatient bed demand is declining, outpatient visits are soaring, and there is a higher level of focus on prevention and reduced readmissions.
| Nov 27, 2013
Exclusive survey: Revenues increased at nearly half of AEC firms in 2013
Forty-six percent of the respondents to an exclusive BD+C survey of AEC professionals reported that revenues had increased this year compared to 2012, with another 24.2% saying cash flow had stayed the same.
| Nov 27, 2013
Wonder walls: 13 choices for the building envelope
BD+C editors present a roundup of the latest technologies and applications in exterior wall systems, from a tapered metal wall installation in Oklahoma to a textured precast concrete solution in North Carolina.
| Nov 27, 2013
LEED for Healthcare offers new paths to green
LEED for Healthcare debuted in spring 2011, and certifications are now beginning to roll in. They include the new Puyallup (Wash.) Medical Center and the W.H. and Elaine McCarty South Tower at Dell Children’s Medical Center of Central Texas in Austin.
| Nov 27, 2013
University reconstruction projects: The 5 keys to success
This AIA CES Discovery course discusses the environmental, economic, and market pressures affecting facility planning for universities and colleges, and outlines current approaches to renovations for critical academic spaces.
| Nov 26, 2013
7 ways to make your firm more successful
Like all professional services businesses, AEC firms are challenged to effectively manage people. And even though people can be rather unpredictable, a firm’s success doesn’t have to be. Here are seven ways to make your firm more successful in the face of market variability and uncertainty.
| Nov 26, 2013
Video: Zaha Hadid's stadium for Qatar 2022 World Cup
Zaha Hadid Architects, in conjunction with AECOM, has released renderings for a major stadium being designed for the Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup--an event that will involve up to nine stadiums.
| Nov 26, 2013
First Look: World's tallest Ferris wheel and surrounding N.Y. development
The New York office of Perkins Eastman has announced that the New York Wheel, located on the north shore of Staten Island’s St. George neighborhood, was approved by City Council on October 30 and construction is scheduled to begin in 2014. The approval process has been over a year in the making since the project was first announced by the office of Mayor Bloomberg last September.
| Nov 26, 2013
Construction costs rise for 22nd straight month in November
Construction costs in North America rose for the 22nd consecutive month in November as labor costs continued to increase, amid growing industry concern over the tight availability of skilled workers.
| Nov 26, 2013
Design-build downsized: Applying the design-build method in an era of smaller projects
Any project can benefit from the collaborative spirit and cooperative relationships embodied by design-build. But is there a point of diminishing return where the design-build project delivery model just doesn't make sense for small projects? Design-build expert Lisa Cooley debates the issue.