Energy consumption in the U.S., which has slowed recently, is projected to inch up by only 0.3% per year through 2040, which would be less than half the projected population growth rate over that period.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) elaborates that industrial energy consumption over the next 25 years will be slightly higher, at 0.7% per year, while annual commercial consumption is expected to be 0.5%.
EIA attributes these consumption reductions to the adoption of energy efficient technologies, as well as “larger structural changes in the economy.” For example, residential consumption has slowed as more people have moved to warmer climates. And policies that have mandated better fuel efficiencies in cars and trucks appear to be having a positive effect.
“These standards, combined with less travel in response to technological and social factors, have reduced transportation energy consumption in recent years and are expected to continue holding transportation consumption nearly flat in the coming decades,” EIA observes.
The department points to several factors that are expected to shape U.S. energy markets in the next generation. These include:
- Growth in U.S. energy production, coupled with only modest increases in domestic demand, will further reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy suppliers. EIA anticipates that energy imports and exports “come into balance” in the U.S. starting in 2028.
- The U.S. will transition from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017, with net exports in 2040 ranging from 3 trillion cubic feet (in a low-oil-price scenario) to 13.1 million (in a high oil and gas resource scenario).
- Rising costs for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, along with slower growth in electricity demand, are expected to lead to an 18% increase in the average retail price of electricity between 2013 and 2040.
- End-user efficiencies are expected to keep energy related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. below 2005 levels through 2040.
EIA expects net energy exports to contribute more to the country’s GDP growth than it has in the previous 30 years, partly because of reduced imports. But that impact is also expected to diminish in the later years of this projection cycle, as GDP growth in nations that are U.S. trade partners slows.
Related Stories
| Nov 2, 2010
11 Tips for Breathing New Life into Old Office Spaces
A slowdown in new construction has firms focusing on office reconstruction and interior renovations. Three experts from Hixson Architecture Engineering Interiors offer 11 tips for office renovation success. Tip #1: Check the landscaping.
| Nov 2, 2010
Cypress Siding Helps Nature Center Look its Part
The Trinity River Audubon Center, which sits within a 6,000-acre forest just outside Dallas, utilizes sustainable materials that help the $12.5 million nature center fit its wooded setting and put it on a path to earning LEED Gold.
| Nov 2, 2010
A Look Back at the Navy’s First LEED Gold
Building Design+Construction takes a retrospective tour of a pace-setting LEED project.
| Nov 2, 2010
Wind Power, Windy City-style
Building-integrated wind turbines lend a futuristic look to a parking structure in Chicago’s trendy River North neighborhood. Only time will tell how much power the wind devices will generate.
| Nov 2, 2010
Energy Analysis No Longer a Luxury
Back in the halcyon days of 2006, energy analysis of building design and performance was a luxury. Sure, many forward-thinking AEC firms ran their designs through services such as Autodesk’s Green Building Studio and IES’s Virtual Environment, and some facility managers used Honeywell’s Energy Manager and other monitoring software. Today, however, knowing exactly how much energy your building will produce and use is survival of the fittest as energy costs and green design requirements demand precision.
| Nov 2, 2010
Yudelson: ‘If It Doesn’t Perform, It Can’t Be Green’
Jerry Yudelson, prolific author and veteran green building expert, challenges Building Teams to think big when it comes to controlling energy use and reducing carbon emissions in buildings.
| Nov 2, 2010
Historic changes to commercial building energy codes drive energy efficiency, emissions reductions
Revisions to the commercial section of the 2012 International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) represent the largest single-step efficiency increase in the history of the national, model energy. The changes mean that new and renovated buildings constructed in jurisdictions that follow the 2012 IECC will use 30% less energy than those built to current standards.
| Nov 1, 2010
Sustainable, mixed-income housing to revitalize community
The $41 million Arlington Grove mixed-use development in St. Louis is viewed as a major step in revitalizing the community. Developed by McCormack Baron Salazar with KAI Design & Build (architect, MEP, GC), the project will add 112 new and renovated mixed-income rental units (market rate, low-income, and public housing) totaling 162,000 sf, plus 5,000 sf of commercial/retail space.
| Nov 1, 2010
John Pearce: First thing I tell designers: Do your homework!
John Pearce, FAIA, University Architect at Duke University, Durham, N.C., tells BD+C’s Robert Cassidy about the school’s construction plans and sustainability efforts, how to land work at Duke, and why he’s proceeding with caution when it comes to BIM.
| Nov 1, 2010
Vancouver’s former Olympic Village shoots for Gold
The first tenants of the Millennium Water development in Vancouver, B.C., were Olympic athletes competing in the 2010 Winter Games. Now the former Olympic Village, located on a 17-acre brownfield site, is being transformed into a residential neighborhood targeting LEED ND Gold. The buildings are expected to consume 30-70% less energy than comparable structures.