Energy consumption in the U.S., which has slowed recently, is projected to inch up by only 0.3% per year through 2040, which would be less than half the projected population growth rate over that period.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) elaborates that industrial energy consumption over the next 25 years will be slightly higher, at 0.7% per year, while annual commercial consumption is expected to be 0.5%.
EIA attributes these consumption reductions to the adoption of energy efficient technologies, as well as “larger structural changes in the economy.” For example, residential consumption has slowed as more people have moved to warmer climates. And policies that have mandated better fuel efficiencies in cars and trucks appear to be having a positive effect.
“These standards, combined with less travel in response to technological and social factors, have reduced transportation energy consumption in recent years and are expected to continue holding transportation consumption nearly flat in the coming decades,” EIA observes.
The department points to several factors that are expected to shape U.S. energy markets in the next generation. These include:
- Growth in U.S. energy production, coupled with only modest increases in domestic demand, will further reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy suppliers. EIA anticipates that energy imports and exports “come into balance” in the U.S. starting in 2028.
- The U.S. will transition from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017, with net exports in 2040 ranging from 3 trillion cubic feet (in a low-oil-price scenario) to 13.1 million (in a high oil and gas resource scenario).
- Rising costs for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, along with slower growth in electricity demand, are expected to lead to an 18% increase in the average retail price of electricity between 2013 and 2040.
- End-user efficiencies are expected to keep energy related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. below 2005 levels through 2040.
EIA expects net energy exports to contribute more to the country’s GDP growth than it has in the previous 30 years, partly because of reduced imports. But that impact is also expected to diminish in the later years of this projection cycle, as GDP growth in nations that are U.S. trade partners slows.
Related Stories
| Nov 3, 2010
Sailing center sets course for energy efficiency, sustainability
The Milwaukee (Wis.) Community Sailing Center’s new facility on Lake Michigan counts a geothermal heating and cooling system among its sustainable features. The facility was designed for the nonprofit instructional sailing organization with energy efficiency and low operating costs in mind.
| Nov 3, 2010
Seattle University’s expanded library trying for LEED Gold
Pfeiffer Partners Architects, in collaboration with Mithun Architects, programmed, planned, and designed the $55 million renovation and expansion of Lemieux Library and McGoldrick Learning Commons at Seattle University. The LEED-Gold-designed facility’s green features include daylighting, sustainable and recycled materials, and a rain garden.
| Nov 3, 2010
Recreation center targets student health, earns LEED Platinum
Not only is the student recreation center at the University of Arizona, Tucson, the hub of student life but its new 54,000-sf addition is also super-green, having recently attained LEED Platinum certification.
| Nov 3, 2010
New church in Connecticut will serve a growing congregation
Tocci Building Companies will start digging next June for the Black Rock Congregational Church in Fairfield, Conn. Designed by Wiles Architects, the 103,000-sf multiuse facility will feature a 900-person worship center with tiered stadium seating, a children’s worship center, a chapel, an auditorium, a gymnasium, educational space, administrative offices, commercial kitchen, and a welcome center with library and lounge.
| Nov 3, 2010
Senior housing will be affordable, sustainable
Horizons at Morgan Hill, a 49-unit affordable senior housing community in Morgan Hill, Calif., was designed by KTGY Group and developed by Urban Housing Communities. The $21.2 million, three-story building will offer 36 one-bed/bath units (773 sf) and 13 two-bed/bath units (1,025 sf) on a 2.6-acre site.
| Nov 3, 2010
Designs complete for new elementary school
SchenkelShultz has completed design of the new 101,270-sf elementary Highlands Elementary School, as well as designs for three existing buildings that will be renovated, in Kissimmee, Fla. The school will provide 48 classrooms for 920 students, a cafeteria, a media center, and a music/art suite with outdoor patio. Three facilities scheduled for renovations total 19,459 sf and include an eight-classroom building that will be used as an exceptional student education center, a older media center that will be used as a multipurpose building, and another building that will be reworked as a parent center, with two meeting rooms for community use. W.G. Mills/Ranger is serving as CM for the $15.1 million project.
| Nov 3, 2010
Chengdu retail center offers a blend of old and new China
The first phase of Pearl River New Town, an 80-acre project in Chengdu, in China’s Wenjiang District, is under way along the banks of the Jiang’an River. Chengdu was at one time a leading center for broadcloth production, and RTKL, which is overseeing the project’s master planning, architecture, branding, and landscape architecture, designed the project’s streets, pedestrian pathways, and bridges to resemble a woven fabric.
| Nov 3, 2010
Rotating atriums give Riyadh’s first Hilton an unusual twist
Goettsch Partners, in collaboration with Omrania & Associates (architect of record) and David Wrenn Interiors (interior designer), is serving as design architect for the five-star, 900-key Hilton Riyadh.
| Nov 3, 2010
Virginia biofuel research center moving along
The Sustainable Energy Technology Center has broken ground in October on the Danville, Va., campus of the Institute for Advanced Learning and Research. The 25,000-sf facility will be used to develop enhanced bio-based fuels, and will house research laboratories, support labs, graduate student research space, and faculty offices. Rainwater harvesting, a vegetated roof, low-VOC and recycled materials, photovoltaic panels, high-efficiency plumbing fixtures and water-saving systems, and LED light fixtures will be deployed. Dewberry served as lead architect, with Lord Aeck & Sargent serving as laboratory designer and sustainability consultant. Perigon Engineering consulted on high-bay process labs. New Atlantic Contracting is building the facility.
| Nov 3, 2010
Dining center cooks up LEED Platinum rating
Students at Bowling Green State University in Ohio will be eating in a new LEED Platinum multiuse dining center next fall. The 30,000-sf McDonald Dining Center will have a 700-seat main dining room, a quick-service restaurant, retail space, and multiple areas for students to gather inside and out, including a fire pit and several patios—one of them on the rooftop.