Energy consumption in the U.S., which has slowed recently, is projected to inch up by only 0.3% per year through 2040, which would be less than half the projected population growth rate over that period.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) elaborates that industrial energy consumption over the next 25 years will be slightly higher, at 0.7% per year, while annual commercial consumption is expected to be 0.5%.
EIA attributes these consumption reductions to the adoption of energy efficient technologies, as well as “larger structural changes in the economy.” For example, residential consumption has slowed as more people have moved to warmer climates. And policies that have mandated better fuel efficiencies in cars and trucks appear to be having a positive effect.
“These standards, combined with less travel in response to technological and social factors, have reduced transportation energy consumption in recent years and are expected to continue holding transportation consumption nearly flat in the coming decades,” EIA observes.
The department points to several factors that are expected to shape U.S. energy markets in the next generation. These include:
- Growth in U.S. energy production, coupled with only modest increases in domestic demand, will further reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy suppliers. EIA anticipates that energy imports and exports “come into balance” in the U.S. starting in 2028.
- The U.S. will transition from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017, with net exports in 2040 ranging from 3 trillion cubic feet (in a low-oil-price scenario) to 13.1 million (in a high oil and gas resource scenario).
- Rising costs for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, along with slower growth in electricity demand, are expected to lead to an 18% increase in the average retail price of electricity between 2013 and 2040.
- End-user efficiencies are expected to keep energy related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. below 2005 levels through 2040.
EIA expects net energy exports to contribute more to the country’s GDP growth than it has in the previous 30 years, partly because of reduced imports. But that impact is also expected to diminish in the later years of this projection cycle, as GDP growth in nations that are U.S. trade partners slows.
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Mar 7, 2015
Chance encounters in workplace design: The winning ticket to the innovation lottery?
The logic behind the push to cultivate chance encounters supposes that innovation is akin to a lottery. But do chance encounters reliably and consistently yield anything of substance?
Justice Facilities | Mar 5, 2015
New courthouse blossoms into a civic space for one California town
The building's canopy suggests classical courthouse features of front porch and portico. It also helps connect the building with a public plaza that has re-centered civic activity and public gathering for the town.
Justice Facilities | Mar 5, 2015
State of the state: How state governments are funding construction projects
State budget shortfalls are making new construction and renovation projects a tough sell, leading lawmakers to seek alternative funding for these jobs.
Museums | Mar 5, 2015
A giant, silver loop in Dubai will house the Museum of the Future
The Sheikh of Dubai hopes the $136 million museum will serve as an incubator for ideas and real designs—a global destination for inventors and entrepreneurs.
Codes and Standards | Mar 5, 2015
Charlotte, N.C., considers rule for gender-neutral public bathrooms
A few other cities, including Philadelphia, Austin, Texas, and Washington D.C., already have gender-neutral bathroom regulations.
Codes and Standards | Mar 5, 2015
FEMA cuts off funding to Indiana after Kokomo continues building stadium in flood zone
FEMA will withhold funding on $5.5 million worth of projects such as building tornado safe rooms in schools.
Codes and Standards | Mar 5, 2015
Construction problems at prison spur support to quash non-traditional project delivery in Iowa
Iowa lawmakers are investigating construction problems at the Fort Madison prison project and are scrutinizing rules regarding project delivery on state projects.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Mar 5, 2015
Chicago's 7 most endangered properties
Preservation Chicago released its annual list of historic buildings that are at risk of being demolished or falling into decay.
Office Buildings | Mar 5, 2015
Goettsch Partners unveils plans for dual office towers in Warsaw
The Mennica Legacy Tower development is divided into a 35-story tower located on the south east side of the site and a 10-story building on the west side.
BIM and Information Technology | Mar 4, 2015
Why China's CCTV building needed a WiFi retrofit
It took a year-long retrofit to get WiFi transmission issues solved at China's iconic skyscraper.