Energy consumption in the U.S., which has slowed recently, is projected to inch up by only 0.3% per year through 2040, which would be less than half the projected population growth rate over that period.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2015, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) elaborates that industrial energy consumption over the next 25 years will be slightly higher, at 0.7% per year, while annual commercial consumption is expected to be 0.5%.
EIA attributes these consumption reductions to the adoption of energy efficient technologies, as well as “larger structural changes in the economy.” For example, residential consumption has slowed as more people have moved to warmer climates. And policies that have mandated better fuel efficiencies in cars and trucks appear to be having a positive effect.
“These standards, combined with less travel in response to technological and social factors, have reduced transportation energy consumption in recent years and are expected to continue holding transportation consumption nearly flat in the coming decades,” EIA observes.
The department points to several factors that are expected to shape U.S. energy markets in the next generation. These include:
- Growth in U.S. energy production, coupled with only modest increases in domestic demand, will further reduce the country’s reliance on imported energy suppliers. EIA anticipates that energy imports and exports “come into balance” in the U.S. starting in 2028.
- The U.S. will transition from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017, with net exports in 2040 ranging from 3 trillion cubic feet (in a low-oil-price scenario) to 13.1 million (in a high oil and gas resource scenario).
- Rising costs for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, along with slower growth in electricity demand, are expected to lead to an 18% increase in the average retail price of electricity between 2013 and 2040.
- End-user efficiencies are expected to keep energy related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. below 2005 levels through 2040.
EIA expects net energy exports to contribute more to the country’s GDP growth than it has in the previous 30 years, partly because of reduced imports. But that impact is also expected to diminish in the later years of this projection cycle, as GDP growth in nations that are U.S. trade partners slows.
Related Stories
High-rise Construction | Mar 24, 2015
Timber high-rise residential complex will tower over Stockholm waterfront
The four towers, 20 stories each, will be made entirely out of Swedish pine, from frame to façade.
Religious Facilities | Mar 23, 2015
Is nothing sacred? Seattle church to become a restaurant and ballroom
A Seattle-based real estate developer plans to convert a historic downtown building, which for more than a century has served as a church sanctuary, into a restaurant with ballroom space.
Government Buildings | Mar 23, 2015
SOM leads planning for Egypt’s new $45 billion capital city
To alleviate overcrowding and congestion in Cairo, the Egyptian government is building a new capital from scratch.
BIM and Information Technology | Mar 23, 2015
Skanska hosts three-week 'hackathon' to find architect for Seattle tower development
Searching for a nimble, collaborative design firm for its 2&U tower project in Seattle, the construction giant ditches the traditional RFQ/RFP process for a hackathon-inspired competition.
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 23, 2015
Can advanced elevator technology take vertical hospitals to the next level?
VOA's Douglas King recalls the Odyssey project and ponders vertical transportation in high-rise healthcare design.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Mar 19, 2015
Populous design wins competition for UK's most sustainable arena
The live-concert venue will seat an audience of 12,000, which the firm says will be masked by “the atmosphere and intimacy of a 4,000-seat amphitheatre.”
Multifamily Housing | Mar 18, 2015
Prefabricated skycubes proposed with 'elastic' living apartments inside
The interiors for each unit are designed using an elastic living concept, where different spaces are created by sliding on tracks.
Sponsored | | Mar 17, 2015
Are face-to-face meetings still important?
One CEO looks pass convenience and advocates for old school, in-person meetings.
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 16, 2015
Healthcare planning in a post-ACA world: 3 strategies for success
Healthcare providers are seeking direction on how to plan for a value-based world while still very much operating in a volume-based market. CBRE Healthcare's Curtis Skolnick offers helpful strategies.
Mixed-Use | Mar 13, 2015
Dubai announces mega waterfront development Aladdin City
Planned on 4,000 acres in the Dubai Creek area, the towers will be covered in gold lattice and connected via air-conditioned bridges.