More than 10 years after the end of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, the U.S. economy is again making history by continuing its longest-ever expansion. Nevertheless, emerging weakness in business investment has been hinting at softening outlays, giving commercial and industrial construction contractors cause for concern, according to a mid-year economic outlook by Anirban Basu, chief economist of Associated Builders and Contractors.
“Given that every expansion in U.S. history has ended in recession, leaders of construction firms are rightly wondering when the record-setting expansion will end,” said Basu. “Looking at conditions on the ground, it likely won’t be in 2019, but 2020 could be problematic for the broader economy and 2021 for a significant number of contractors.”
Basu cites numerous vulnerabilities that could trigger a recession in 2020, including:
— Trade wars
— Softening corporate earnings
— Slowing job growth
— Elevated levels of household, corporate and government debt
— Election 2020
But there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic. “For the most part, the economy has held up better than anticipated,” said Basu. “During the first quarter of 2019, gross domestic product expanded at a smart 3.1% annualized rate. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ initial estimate suggests that the economy slowed to 2.1% growth during the second quarter, but that neatly beat economists’ expectation that that growth had fallen below 2%.”
“The economy could continue to prove resilient,” says Basu. “To date, the economy has navigated ongoing trade disputes and associated tariffs with aplomb. It has also withstood serial interest rate hikes, the longest federal government shutdown in history, extreme weather, shifting immigration policy, ongoing labor market shortages and a lengthy investigation regarding foreign influence in U.S. elections.”
To read the full economic outlook story, visit ConstructionExec.com.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jan 22, 2020
Architecture Billings Index ends year on positive note
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 52.5 for December reflects an increase in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms.
AEC Tech | Jan 16, 2020
EC firms with a clear ‘digital roadmap’ should excel in 2020
Deloitte, in new report, lays out a risk mitigation strategy that relies on tech.
Market Data | Jan 13, 2020
Construction employment increases by 20,000 in December and 151,000 in 2019
Survey finds optimism about 2020 along with even tighter labor supply as construction unemployment sets record December low.
Market Data | Jan 10, 2020
North America’s office market should enjoy continued expansion in 2020
Brokers and analysts at two major CRE firms observe that tenants are taking longer to make lease decisions.
Market Data | Dec 17, 2019
Architecture Billings Index continues to show modest growth
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 51.9 for November reflects an increase in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms.
Market Data | Dec 12, 2019
2019 sets new record for supertall building completion
Overall, the number of completed buildings of at least 200 meters in 2019 declined by 13.7%.
Market Data | Dec 4, 2019
Nonresidential construction spending falls in October
Private nonresidential spending fell 1.2% on a monthly basis and is down 4.3% from October 2018.
Market Data | Nov 25, 2019
Office construction lifts U.S. asking rental rate, but slowing absorption in Q3 raises concerns
12-month net absorption decelerates by one-third from 2018 total.
Market Data | Nov 22, 2019
Architecture Billings Index rebounds after two down months
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score in October is 52.0.
Market Data | Nov 14, 2019
Construction input prices unchanged in October
Nonresidential construction input prices fell 0.1% for the month and are down 2.0% compared to the same time last year.