More than 10 years after the end of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, the U.S. economy is again making history by continuing its longest-ever expansion. Nevertheless, emerging weakness in business investment has been hinting at softening outlays, giving commercial and industrial construction contractors cause for concern, according to a mid-year economic outlook by Anirban Basu, chief economist of Associated Builders and Contractors.
“Given that every expansion in U.S. history has ended in recession, leaders of construction firms are rightly wondering when the record-setting expansion will end,” said Basu. “Looking at conditions on the ground, it likely won’t be in 2019, but 2020 could be problematic for the broader economy and 2021 for a significant number of contractors.”
Basu cites numerous vulnerabilities that could trigger a recession in 2020, including:
— Trade wars
— Softening corporate earnings
— Slowing job growth
— Elevated levels of household, corporate and government debt
— Election 2020
But there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic. “For the most part, the economy has held up better than anticipated,” said Basu. “During the first quarter of 2019, gross domestic product expanded at a smart 3.1% annualized rate. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ initial estimate suggests that the economy slowed to 2.1% growth during the second quarter, but that neatly beat economists’ expectation that that growth had fallen below 2%.”
“The economy could continue to prove resilient,” says Basu. “To date, the economy has navigated ongoing trade disputes and associated tariffs with aplomb. It has also withstood serial interest rate hikes, the longest federal government shutdown in history, extreme weather, shifting immigration policy, ongoing labor market shortages and a lengthy investigation regarding foreign influence in U.S. elections.”
To read the full economic outlook story, visit ConstructionExec.com.
Related Stories
Market Data | Apr 23, 2020
Construction Contractor Confidence plummets in February
As of February 2020, fewer than 30% of contractors expected their sales to increase over the next six months.
Market Data | Apr 23, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 23, 2020
The death of the department store and how to return to work when the time comes.
Market Data | Apr 22, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 22, 2020
Repurposed containers can be used as rapid response airborne infection isolation rooms and virtual site visits help control infection on project sites.
Market Data | Apr 21, 2020
ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator down in February
Backlog for firms working in the infrastructure segment rose by 1.3 months in February while backlog for commercial and institutional and heavy industrial firms declined by 0.6 months and 0.7 months, respectively.
Market Data | Apr 21, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 21, 2020
IoT system helps contractors keep their distance and the multifamily market flattens.
Market Data | Apr 20, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 20, 2020
The continent's tallest living wall and NMHC survey shows significant delays in apartment construction.
Market Data | Apr 17, 2020
Construction employment declines in 20 states and D.C. in March, in line with industry survey showing growing job losses for the sector
New monthly job loss data foreshadows more layoffs amid project cancellations and state cutbacks in road projects as association calls for more small business relief and immediate aid for highway funding.
Market Data | Apr 17, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 17, 2020
Meet the 'AEC outsiders' pushing the industry forward and the world's largest Living Building.
Market Data | Apr 16, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 16, 2020
The SMPS Foundation and Building Design+Construction are studying the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the ability to attain and retain clients and conduct projects and Saks Fifth Avenue plans a sanitized post-coronavirus opening.
Market Data | Apr 15, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: April 15, 2020
Buildings as "open source platforms" and 3D printing finds its grove producing face shields.