More than 10 years after the end of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, the U.S. economy is again making history by continuing its longest-ever expansion. Nevertheless, emerging weakness in business investment has been hinting at softening outlays, giving commercial and industrial construction contractors cause for concern, according to a mid-year economic outlook by Anirban Basu, chief economist of Associated Builders and Contractors.
“Given that every expansion in U.S. history has ended in recession, leaders of construction firms are rightly wondering when the record-setting expansion will end,” said Basu. “Looking at conditions on the ground, it likely won’t be in 2019, but 2020 could be problematic for the broader economy and 2021 for a significant number of contractors.”
Basu cites numerous vulnerabilities that could trigger a recession in 2020, including:
— Trade wars
— Softening corporate earnings
— Slowing job growth
— Elevated levels of household, corporate and government debt
— Election 2020
But there are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic. “For the most part, the economy has held up better than anticipated,” said Basu. “During the first quarter of 2019, gross domestic product expanded at a smart 3.1% annualized rate. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ initial estimate suggests that the economy slowed to 2.1% growth during the second quarter, but that neatly beat economists’ expectation that that growth had fallen below 2%.”
“The economy could continue to prove resilient,” says Basu. “To date, the economy has navigated ongoing trade disputes and associated tariffs with aplomb. It has also withstood serial interest rate hikes, the longest federal government shutdown in history, extreme weather, shifting immigration policy, ongoing labor market shortages and a lengthy investigation regarding foreign influence in U.S. elections.”
To read the full economic outlook story, visit ConstructionExec.com.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jun 22, 2021
Architecture billings continue historic rebound
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for May rose to 58.5 compared to 57.9 in April.
Market Data | Jun 17, 2021
Commercial construction contractors upbeat on outlook despite worsening material shortages, worker shortages
88% indicate difficulty in finding skilled workers; of those, 35% have turned down work because of it.
Market Data | Jun 16, 2021
Construction input prices rise 4.6% in May; softwood lumber prices up 154% from a year ago
Construction input prices are 24.3% higher than a year ago, while nonresidential construction input prices increased 23.9% over that span.
Market Data | Jun 16, 2021
Producer prices for construction materials and services jump 24% over 12 months
The 24.3% increase in prices for materials used in construction from May 2020 to last month was nearly twice as great as in any previous year
Market Data | Jun 15, 2021
ABC’s Construction Backlog inches higher in May
Materials and labor shortages suppress contractor confidence.
Market Data | Jun 11, 2021
The countries with the most green buildings
As the country that set up the LEED initiative, the US is a natural leader in constructing green buildings.
Market Data | Jun 7, 2021
Construction employment slips by 20,000 in May
Seasonally adjusted construction employment in May totaled 7,423,000.
Market Data | Jun 2, 2021
Construction employment in April lags pre-covid February 2020 level in 107 metro areas
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land and Odessa, Texas have worst 14-month construction job losses.
Market Data | Jun 1, 2021
Nonresidential construction spending decreases 0.5% in April
Spending was down on a monthly basis in nine of 16 nonresidential subcategories.
Market Data | Jun 1, 2021
Nonresidential construction outlays drop in April to two-year low
Public and private work declines amid supply-chain woes, soaring costs.