This year's unusually difficult winter took its toll on construction activity. Nonetheless, first quarter spending for all the major groups was up compared to the same period in 2013.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported that total construction spending advanced 0.2% in March to $942.5 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). First quarter not seasonally adjusted (NSA) spending was 8.3% higher than the same period a year ago.
Nonresidential building construction spending fell for the fifth month in a row, down 1.0% to $298.8 billion (SAAR) in March. January and February spending were revised down by $3.3 billion and $6.4 billion, respectively, which was 1.1% and 2.1% of their respective previously reported numbers. That altered the monthly percentage change for January from +0.1% to ?0.9%. Despite the recent declines, first quarter NSA spending was 3.5% higher than in 2013.
Heavy engineering (non-building) construction spending increased 0.8% to $269.2 billion (SAAR) in March. January and February spending were revised down by $2.5 billion and $5.3 billion, respectively, which was 0.9% and 2.0% of their respective previously reported numbers. First quarter NSA spending was 4.5% higher than a year ago.
Total residential construction spending, which includes improvements, rose 0.7% in to $374.5 billion (SAAR) after inching up 0.1% in February. New residential construction spending, which excludes improvements, also increased 0.7% to $229.1 billion in March, its 30th consecutive monthly increase. First quarter NSA total residential construction spending was 16.0% higher than last year and new residential construction was 17.9% higher.
March private construction spending bounced back from February's 0.2% dip at a seasonally adjusted (SA) rate, increasing 0.5%. First quarter NSA spending was 12.5% higher than 2013 first quarter spending.
Meanwhile, public construction spending fell for the fifth consecutive month, down 0.6% in March. First quarter NSA public spending was 2.0% lower than a year ago.
The Economy
The economic data continue to indicate that the country is recovering from the harsh winter. At this point, the construction spending data are only available through March. We know that the bad weather across much of the nation extended into April and May. Thus we do not look for a quick rebound in the numbers, but continued slow improvement.
We do believe that economic activity is shaking off the winter blues and will continue to post better numbers. Employment growth is key, both as an indicator of how fast the economy is expanding and as a stimulus to further growth as newly hired workers spend their new income.
The Federal Reserve continues to ratchet down its monthly purchases of long-term assets. At the end of April, the Fed announced it would reduce its purchases of long-term assets from $55 billion per month to $45 billion per month starting in May. Prior to January, when the reduction in purchases began, the Fed was buying $85 billion of long-term assets per month. To date, the Fed's actions have led to only a relatively small increase in long-term interest rates.
Risks to the economy and construction remain. These include:
- A sustained spike in interest rates due to the Federal Reserve unwinding its asset purchase program too rapidly
- Sharp reduction in government spending in the short run
- Sovereign debt default by one or more European governments
- One or more European governments abandon the euro
- A sudden, significant increase in oil prices for a prolonged period
The probability of any one of these occurring is fairly low. Nonetheless they remain a potential negative for the economy and construction.
Two other issues will become important issues in the coming months. First, September 30 marks the end of the current federal fiscal year. At that point, appropriations for most government operations and programs expire. The appropriate action would be to have the necessary appropriation bills for the next fiscal year passed and signed into law prior to October 1. This is not a given. Appropriations for the current fiscal year did not become law until the middle of January 2014.
Second, the suspension of the debt ceiling expires in March. Prior to that, a new debt ceiling needs to be passed, the debt ceiling suspension needs to be extended, or—best of all worlds, but extremely unlikely—the debt ceiling needs to be eliminated.
Failure to deal with these issues in a timely manner will create additional uncertainty for business and the economy with negative fallout for investment and construction.
The Forecast
The Reed forecast assumes that, despite these risks, the economy grows at a moderate pace this year and next. Further, nonresidential building construction, which has been struggling of late, is forecast to gain traction and improve this year and next.
Heavy engineering (non-building) construction activity, which has shown some strength of late, is forecast to expand this year and next. Federal funding for infrastructure projects is expected to increase this year and beyond, although not by nearly the amount that is necessary to properly address the nation's aging infrastructure. The amount of funding available for public projects will greatly affect the level of infrastructure construction activity. Public-private partnerships at the state and local level will boost the amount of money available for infrastructure projects.
Total construction spending is forecast to increase 9.0% in 2014 and 11.3% in 2015, with nonresidential and heavy engineering construction gaining strength and residential construction continuing its expand.
For more from this report, including charts, click here.
Related Stories
Retail Centers | Nov 15, 2023
Should retail developers avoid high crime areas?
For retailers resolute to operating in high crime areas, design elements exist to mitigate losses and potentially deter criminal behavior.
MFPRO+ News | Nov 15, 2023
Average U.S multifamily rents drop $3 to $1,718 in October 2023: Yardi Matrix
Multifamily fundamentals continued to soften and impact rents last month, according to the latest Yardi Matrix National Multifamily Report. The average U.S. asking rent dropped $3 to $1,718 in October, with year-over-year growth moderating to 0.4%, down 40 basis points from September. Occupancy slid to 94.9%, marking the first decline in four months.
MFPRO+ Special Reports | Nov 14, 2023
Register today! Key trends in the multifamily housing market for 2024 - BD+C Live Webinar
Join the BD+C and Multifamily Pro+ editorial team for this live webinar on key trends and innovations in the $110 billion U.S. multifamily housing market. A trio of multifamily design and construction experts will present their latest projects, trends, innovations, and data/research on the three primary multifamily sub-sectors: rental housing, senior living, and student housing.
Giants 400 | Nov 14, 2023
Top 90 Justice Facility Architecture Firms for 2023
DLR Group, Stantec, HDR, HOK, and Elevatus Architecture top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest justice facility architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue from all public safety/justice facilities buildings work, including correctional facilities, fire stations, jails, police stations, and prisons.
Giants 400 | Nov 13, 2023
Top 65 Airport Facility Architecture Firms for 2023
Gensler, Corgan, PGAL, and HOK top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest airport terminal and airport facilities architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Data Centers | Nov 13, 2023
Data center sector trends for 2023-2024
Demand for more data centers is soaring, but delivery can be stymied by supply delays, manpower shortages, and NIMBYism.
Education Facilities | Nov 9, 2023
Oakland schools’ central kitchen cooks up lessons along with 30,000 meals daily
CAW Architects recently completed a facility for the Oakland, Calif., school district that feeds students and teaches them how to grow, harvest, and cook produce grown onsite. The production kitchen at the Unified School District Central Kitchen, Instructional Farm, and Education Center, (“The Center”) prepares and distributes about 30,000 meals a day for district schools lacking their own kitchens.
Laboratories | Nov 8, 2023
Boston’s FORUM building to support cutting-edge life sciences research and development
Global real estate companies Lendlease and Ivanhoé Cambridge recently announced the topping-out of FORUM, a nine-story, 350,000-sf life science building in Boston. Located in Boston Landing, a 15-acre mixed-use community, the $545 million project will achieve operational net zero carbon upon completion in 2024.
Retail Centers | Nov 7, 2023
Omnichannel experiences, mixed-use development among top retail design trends for 2023-2024
Retailer survival continues to hinge on retail design trends like blending online and in-person shopping and mixing retail with other building types, such as offices and residential.
Giants 400 | Nov 6, 2023
Top 110 Cultural Facility Architecture Firms for 2023
Populous, Gensler, HGA, DLR Group, and Quinn Evans top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest cultural facilities sector architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue from all cultural building sectors, including concert venues, art galleries, museums, performing arts centers, and public libraries.