Design that “puts people back at the center” is now the driving force behind resilient, livable cities, according to Gensler’s just-released 2018 Design Forecast, “Shaping the Future of Cities.”
The 61-page report, which can be downloaded from here, is a collection of more than 200 trends that are defining design across the globe. The report is organized into three sections—Work, Lifestyle, and Cities—and is framed by five forces that Gensler sees as having the greatest impact on businesses, cities, and human experiences: demographic shifts, technology driven disruption, rapid urbanization, climate change, and worldwide volatility.
Throughout the report, Gensler draws upon its own research and portfolio of projects to illustrate trends across myriad typologies. Each of the report’s chapters provides statistical tidbits from a variety of sources that call out trends and dynamics that AEC firms and their clients can’t ignore.
Some examples:
•From 2017 to 2027, it’s predicted that the U.S. will face a shortage of 8.2 million laborers—the most significant deficit in the past 50 years. “To succeed, organizations must put people first: investing in the individual, diversifying work spaces, and reinforcing a shared culture and mission,” states Gensler.
•“By 2020, 31 billion devices and 4.8 billion people will be connected to the Internet,” according to the research firm Gartner.
•Global coworking spaces will grow from 14,411 in 2017 to over 30,000 in 2022. The number of worldwide coworking members will nearly triple to over five million.
•Forbes estimated last year that there could be 10 million self-driving cars on the road by 2020. The Gensler Research Institute predicts autonomous vehicles will completely change cities. “Building form will change radically as design is dictated less—or not at all—by parking requirements, which will decrease dramatically.”
•Credit Suisse predicts that as online sales march toward 35% of all retail sales by 2030 (from 17% today), between one fifth to one quarter of American malls could close by as early as 2022.
Time and again, Gensler’s forecast returns to its primary thesis: that regardless of technological advances or political and economic uncertainties, design must factor in human needs and social interactions to be effective. For instance, Gensler foresees the next generation of office building as drawing employees back into the office. “Mobility will remain an important part of work, but the value of face-to-face remains undisputed,” the report states. “On-site spaces that support a variety of work modes—including social—create dynamic developments and yield longer-term tenants.”
The Boston Consulting Group's office in New York City features staircases that facilitate floor-to-floor interaction and employee movement. Image: Gensler
That prediction dovetails with Gensler’s expectation that multipurpose buildings “are the future,” and that smart buildings “are critical to the workplace experience.” But as data multiply exponentially, “companies will need to expand their capabilities to harness and interpret their internal workplace data.”
Lifestyle design is now reckoning with trends that are making single-use spaces obsolete. Frictionless, seamless design is becoming ubiquitous, with convenience being a differentiator, as consumers take more control of their experiences in ways that shape, and reshape, brand identities.
Gensler sees “smart cities” in terms of their adaptability and resilience. As engines of innovation, cities “are nurturing a new mix” of businesses and people. Their leaders are in the vanguard of climate action “because they depend on it” for survival and growth. And wellness is the new measure of livability. “Health has become a major factor in urban and community planning, as research and public awareness about the link between them grows,” the report states.
Related Stories
MFPRO+ News | Nov 15, 2023
Average U.S multifamily rents drop $3 to $1,718 in October 2023: Yardi Matrix
Multifamily fundamentals continued to soften and impact rents last month, according to the latest Yardi Matrix National Multifamily Report. The average U.S. asking rent dropped $3 to $1,718 in October, with year-over-year growth moderating to 0.4%, down 40 basis points from September. Occupancy slid to 94.9%, marking the first decline in four months.
MFPRO+ Special Reports | Nov 14, 2023
Register today! Key trends in the multifamily housing market for 2024 - BD+C Live Webinar
Join the BD+C and Multifamily Pro+ editorial team for this live webinar on key trends and innovations in the $110 billion U.S. multifamily housing market. A trio of multifamily design and construction experts will present their latest projects, trends, innovations, and data/research on the three primary multifamily sub-sectors: rental housing, senior living, and student housing.
Giants 400 | Nov 14, 2023
Top 60 Justice Facility Engineering Firms for 2023
EXP, AECOM, IMEG, Dewberry, and Tetra Tech head BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest justice facility engineering and engineering architecture (EA) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue from all public safety/justice facilities buildings work, including correctional facilities, fire stations, jails, police stations, and prisons.
Giants 400 | Nov 14, 2023
Top 90 Justice Facility Architecture Firms for 2023
DLR Group, Stantec, HDR, HOK, and Elevatus Architecture top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest justice facility architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue from all public safety/justice facilities buildings work, including correctional facilities, fire stations, jails, police stations, and prisons.
Giants 400 | Nov 13, 2023
Top 65 Airport Facility Engineering Firms for 2023
AECOM, Jacobs, Arup, Burns & McDonnell, and WSP head BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest airport terminal and airport facilities engineering and engineering architecture (EA) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Nov 13, 2023
Top 65 Airport Facility Architecture Firms for 2023
Gensler, Corgan, PGAL, and HOK top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest airport terminal and airport facilities architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Data Centers | Nov 13, 2023
Data center sector trends for 2023-2024
Demand for more data centers is soaring, but delivery can be stymied by supply delays, manpower shortages, and NIMBYism.
Education Facilities | Nov 9, 2023
Oakland schools’ central kitchen cooks up lessons along with 30,000 meals daily
CAW Architects recently completed a facility for the Oakland, Calif., school district that feeds students and teaches them how to grow, harvest, and cook produce grown onsite. The production kitchen at the Unified School District Central Kitchen, Instructional Farm, and Education Center, (“The Center”) prepares and distributes about 30,000 meals a day for district schools lacking their own kitchens.
Laboratories | Nov 8, 2023
Boston’s FORUM building to support cutting-edge life sciences research and development
Global real estate companies Lendlease and Ivanhoé Cambridge recently announced the topping-out of FORUM, a nine-story, 350,000-sf life science building in Boston. Located in Boston Landing, a 15-acre mixed-use community, the $545 million project will achieve operational net zero carbon upon completion in 2024.
Retail Centers | Nov 7, 2023
Omnichannel experiences, mixed-use development among top retail design trends for 2023-2024
Retailer survival continues to hinge on retail design trends like blending online and in-person shopping and mixing retail with other building types, such as offices and residential.