The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
Sponsored | | Dec 3, 2014
Modular Space Showcase: Bringing work-life balance to energy workers in the Bakken region
To meet the demands of the booming energy business, Williston needs to provide homes, recreation centers, restaurants, hotels, and other support facilities for the tidal wave of energy workers relocating to the Bakken Shale area. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Dec 3, 2014
U.S., Canada, and Mexico finalize agreement to recognize architect credentials
The agreement represents over a decade of negotiations, bringing cross-border recognition of professional credentials from concept to reality in the spirit of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
| Dec 3, 2014
35 cities added to Rockefeller Foundation's 100 Resilient Cities Challenge
Chicago, Dallas, and Pittsburgh are among the U.S. cities to join the 100 Resilient Cities Challenge, pioneered by The Rockefeller Foundation.
| Dec 2, 2014
First existing multifamily buildings to earn Energy Star certification unveiled
River City in Chicago is one of 17 existing multifamily properties to earn Energy Star certification, which became available to this sector on Sept. 16 via a scoring system for multifamily properties that Energy Star and Fannie Mae had been developing for three years.
| Dec 2, 2014
Nashville planning retail district made from 21 shipping containers
OneC1TY, a healthcare- and technology-focused community under construction on 18.7 acres near Nashville, Tenn., will include a mini retail district made from 21 shipping containers, the first time in this market containers have been repurposed for such use.
| Dec 2, 2014
Main attractions: New list tallies up the Top 10 museums completed this year
The list includes both additions to existing structures and entirely new buildings, from Frank Gehry's Foundation Louis Vuitton in Paris to Shigeru Ban's Aspen (Colo.) Art Museum.
| Dec 2, 2014
Nonresidential construction spending rebounds in October
This month's increase in nonresidential construction spending is far more consistent with the anecdotal information floating around the industry, says ABC's Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
| Dec 2, 2014
Hoffmann Architects announces promotions
The architecture and engineering firm specializing in the rehabilitation of building exteriors announces the promotion of members of its Connecticut staff.
| Dec 2, 2014
SPARK designs urban farming housing for Singapore’s elderly population
The proposal blends affordable retirement housing with urban farming by integrating vertical aquaponic farming and rooftop soil planting into multi-unit housing for seniors.
| Dec 2, 2014
Bjarke Ingels unveils cave-like plan for public square in Battersea Power Station
A Malaysian development consortium is guiding the project, which is meant to mimic the caves of Gunung Mulu National Park in Sarawak, East Malaysia.