The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
| Dec 17, 2014
ULI report looks at growing appeal of micro unit apartments
New research from the Urban Land Institute suggests that micro units have staying power as a housing type that appeals to urban dwellers in high-cost markets who are willing to trade space for improved affordability and proximity to downtown neighborhoods.
| Dec 17, 2014
11 predictions for high-rise construction in 2015
In its annual forecast, the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat predicts that 2015 will be the "Year of the Woodscraper," and that New York’s troubled B2 modular high-rise project will get back on track.
| Dec 17, 2014
Demand softens, but outlook for Architecture Billings Index remains positive
The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November was 50.9, down from a mark of 53.7 in October. Despite the drop, the ABI continued its seven-month run of positive scores (above 50).
Sponsored | | Dec 16, 2014
Quadcopters save project team $15K in warranty work
On a recent trip to see what technology Todd Wynne and the rest of the team at Rogers-O’Brien Construction have been tinkering with, I had a chance to experience firsthand which new hardware innovations will one day be applied in the AEC space.
| Dec 16, 2014
Architect Eli Attia sues Google over tall building technology
Attia and tech company Max Sound Corp. have brought a lawsuit against Google because of Flux, a Google X-developed startup launched in 2014. Flux creates software to design environmentally-friendly buildings in a cost-effective way.
| Dec 15, 2014
SHoP Architects plans to turn NY's Seaport District into pedestrianized, mixed-use area
The scheme includes a proposed 500-foot luxury residential tower that would jut out into the harbor, extending the Manhattan grid out into the waterfront.
| Dec 15, 2014
Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture launches fundraising campaign for independent incorporation
The Frank Lloyd Wright Foundation announced today that it approved a possible path toward independent incorporation of the Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture by raising $2 million before the end of 2015.
| Dec 15, 2014
Studio Gang tapped for American Museum of Natural History expansion
Chicago-based Studio Gang Architects has been commissioned to design the $325 million Gilder Center for Science, Education and Innovation at the American Museum of Natural History in New York.
| Dec 12, 2014
Dunkin’ Donuts launches certification for green restaurant buildings
The company aims to build 100 new DD Green-certified restaurants by the end of 2016.
| Dec 12, 2014
COBE's striking 'concrete finned' scheme wins competition for Adidas' flagship building in Germany
Danish firm COBE has been announced the winner in a contest to design a new Adidas flagship building in Herzogenaurach, Germany. It beat out 29 other teams, including REX and Zaha Hadid.