The U.S. housing recovery should regain its footing, but also faces a number of challenges, concludes The State of the Nation’s Housing report released by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Tight credit, still elevated unemployment, and mounting student loan debt among young Americans are moderating growth and keeping millennials and other first-time homebuyers out of the market.
“The housing recovery is following the path of the broader economy,” says Chris Herbert, research director at the Joint Center for Housing Studies. “As long as the economy remains on the path of slow, but steady improvement, housing should follow suit.”
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession. Young Americans, saddled with higher-than-ever student loan debt and falling incomes, continue to live with their parents. Indeed, some 2.1 million more adults in their 20s lived with their parents last year, and student loan balances increased by $114 billion.
Still, given the sheer volume of young adults coming of age, the number of households in their 30s should increase by 2.7 million over the coming decade, which should boost demand for new housing. “Ultimately, the large millennial generation will make their presence felt in the owner-occupied market,” says Daniel McCue, research manager of the Joint Center, “just as they already have in the rental market, where demand is strong, rents are rising, construction is robust, and property values increased by double digits for the fourth consecutive year in 2013.”
One key to realizing the millennials’ potential in the housing market is for the economy to grow to the point where their incomes start to rise. Another important factor is how potential GSE reform will affect the cost and availability of mortgage credit for the next generation of homebuyers, which will be the most diverse in the nation’s history. By 2025, minorities will make up 36 percent of all US households and 46 percent of those aged 25–34, thus accounting for nearly half of the typical first-time homebuyer market.
The report, as well as an interactive map released by the Joint Center, also highlights the ongoing affordability challenge facing the country, as cost burdens remain near record levels and over 35 percent of Americans spend more than 30 percent of their income for housing. The situation is particularly grim for renters, where 50 percent are cost burdened and 28 percent are severely cost burdened (meaning they spend over half of their income for housing).
“When available, federal rental subsidies make a significant difference in the quality of life for those struggling the most,” says Herbert. “Between 2007 and 2011, the number of Americans eligible for assistance rose by 3.3 million, while the number of assisted housing units was essentially unchanged. Sequestration forced further cuts in housing assistance, which have yet to be reversed.”
Related Stories
BIM and Information Technology | May 26, 2015
Moore's Law and the future of urban design
SmithGroupJJR's Stephen Conschafter, urban designer and planner, discusses his thoughts on the 50th anniversary of Moore's Law and how technology is transforming urban design.
Architects | May 26, 2015
AIA design competition creates portable, temporary housing for the homeless
The winning design from the AIA's "A Safe Place" competition was built at the AIA convention in Atlanta and later donated to a local non-profit partner.
BIM and Information Technology | May 21, 2015
How AEC firms should approach BIM training
CASE Founding Partner Steve Sanderson talks about the current state of software training in the AEC industry and common pitfalls in AEC training.
Architects | May 20, 2015
Architecture billings remain stuck in winter slowdown
Regional business conditions continue to thrive in the South and West
University Buildings | May 19, 2015
Special Report: How your firm can help struggling colleges and universities meet their building project goals
Building Teams that want to succeed in the higher education market have to help their clients find new funding sources, control costs, and provide the maximum value for every dollar.
University Buildings | May 19, 2015
Renovate or build new: How to resolve the eternal question
With capital budgets strained, renovation may be an increasingly attractive money-saving option for many college and universities.
University Buildings | May 19, 2015
KU Jayhawks take a gander at a P3 development
The P3 concept is getting a tryout at the University of Kansas, where state funding for construction has fallen from 20% of project costs to about 11% over the last 10 years.
Multifamily Housing | May 19, 2015
Zaha Hadid unveils 'interlocking lattice' design for luxury apartments in Monterrey, Mexico
Hadid's scheme was inspired by the Mexican tradition of interlocking lattice geometries.
Retail Centers | May 18, 2015
ULI forecast sees clear skies for real estate over next three years
With asset availability declining in several sectors, rents and transactions should rise.
Architects | May 17, 2015
NCARB wants the title ‘architect’ confined to those who are licensed
The Council is urging state licensing boards to come up with a substitute for the pre-licensure title ‘Intern.’