The good news: the cargo and transportation snags that have encumbered building material availability this year showed signs of finally easing in September.
The bad news: the lack of material supply and increasing demand for labor are keeping prices high, to the point where manufacturers aren’t willing to hold price quotes for more than a week, if at all.
That, in a nutshell, is the state of the construction market, which the general contractor Consigli lays out in its Market Outlook for October 2021. The Outlook, written by the firm’s Director of Purchasing Peter Capone and Vice President of Preconstruction Jared Lachapelle, sends up red alerts about the availability of six product categories—steel joist, steel deck, MEP equipment, roofing insulation, lab casework, and mineral/rock wool—whose lead times for fabrication after release, as of Sept. 1, ranged from 20 to 40 weeks, with steel joists having the longest wait time.
The Outlook reports a 12 percent average price escalation for the 15 building materials tracked, and anticipates another 3 percent bump through the final quarter of this year. Roofing insulation, roofing membranes, gypsum wallboard, light-gauge metal framing, and glass exceed the overall averages.
As a result of large manufacturers not willing to take risks on escalating prices. “subcontractors are being changed market increases at the time of delivery,” states the report.
![The lead times for several building materials exceeds 20 weeks. Image: Consigli](/sites/default/files/inline-images/Consigli%20October%20Outlook.png)
MANAGING RISK TAKES DISCIPLINE
Consigli’s strategies for risk management include:
•lock in prices with subs that are willing to share risk
•buy in bulk quantities whenever possible
•consider alternative supply sources
•implement stringent quality assurance and control measures
•focus on weekly materials delivery verification
•pre-purchase and warehouse materials
•identify peak manpower needs
•utilize prefabrication that takes labor off site
•partner with trades through design-assist
Consigli thinks labor shortages could get worse in the second half of next year. The severity will depend, in part, on vaccination mandates at a time when a sizable number of construction workers still refuse to be vaccinated. But even a fully vaccinated workforce might struggle to keep pace with construction demand that the pending $1 trillion infrastructure bill, if passed, would further pressure.
The Outlook notes that some manufacturers are focusing their production capacities on commonly used materials like drywall and MEP equipment, which is limiting—and sometimes halting—the production of specialty products. And AEC firms need to be vigilant about maintaining compatibility and quality when manufacturers source products from alternate vendors.
Consigli sees some light at the end of this supply tunnel. Its Outlook notes that steel prices are starting to level off as production increases. But citing the National Roofing Contractors Association, Consigli also cautions that shortages in roofing materials and insulation (whose lead time right now is 24 weeks) will continue through next year because of raw materials supply issues.
Related Stories
| Jun 20, 2014
U.S. Energy Information Administration releases preliminary Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey results
Federal survey project shows that commercial-building floorspace has grown 22% since 2003; energy-use data will be released in Spring 2015.
| Jun 20, 2014
Batson-Cook appoints Rygiel VP/Business Development for Tampa office
Rygiel will be responsible for cultivating and maintaining the contractor's business relationships in the state of Florida, concentrating on expanding the firm’s presence in the state’s private-development sector.
| Jun 19, 2014
First Look: 10 Design unveils new luxury apartments plan in Dubai
The Seventh Heaven complex features a stepped form that will offer stunning views of the Dubai skyline.
| Jun 19, 2014
First look: JDS Architects' roller-coaster-like design for Istanbul waterfront development
The development's wavy and groovy design promises unobstructed views of the Marmara Sea for every unit.
| Jun 19, 2014
Singapore's 'Tree House' vertical gardens break Guinness World Record
The high-rise development will have a 24,638-sf vertical garden, breaking a Guinness World Record.
| Jun 18, 2014
Design tips for Alzheimer care facilities
A new white paper from the Alzheimer’s Foundation of America and Perkins Eastman details best design practices for residential care settings for individuals living with Alzheimer’s disease.
| Jun 18, 2014
Largest Passive House structure in the U.S. to be built in Oregon
Orchards at Orenco, a 57-unit affordable housing complex in Hillsboro, Oregon, is the first of a three-phase, three-building complex.
| Jun 18, 2014
SOM's twisting tower wins design competition for Sweden's tallest skyscraper
The skyscraper, which will reach 230 meters and is named Polstjärnan, or "The Pole Star," is to be built in Gothenburg, Sweden.
| Jun 18, 2014
Study shows walkable urbanism has positive economic impact
Walkable communities have a higher GDP, greater wealth, and higher percentages of college grads, according to a new study by George Washington University.
| Jun 18, 2014
Arup uses 3D printing to fabricate one-of-a-kind structural steel components
The firm's research shows that 3D printing has the potential to reduce costs, cut waste, and slash the carbon footprint of the construction sector.