The good news: the cargo and transportation snags that have encumbered building material availability this year showed signs of finally easing in September.
The bad news: the lack of material supply and increasing demand for labor are keeping prices high, to the point where manufacturers aren’t willing to hold price quotes for more than a week, if at all.
That, in a nutshell, is the state of the construction market, which the general contractor Consigli lays out in its Market Outlook for October 2021. The Outlook, written by the firm’s Director of Purchasing Peter Capone and Vice President of Preconstruction Jared Lachapelle, sends up red alerts about the availability of six product categories—steel joist, steel deck, MEP equipment, roofing insulation, lab casework, and mineral/rock wool—whose lead times for fabrication after release, as of Sept. 1, ranged from 20 to 40 weeks, with steel joists having the longest wait time.
The Outlook reports a 12 percent average price escalation for the 15 building materials tracked, and anticipates another 3 percent bump through the final quarter of this year. Roofing insulation, roofing membranes, gypsum wallboard, light-gauge metal framing, and glass exceed the overall averages.
As a result of large manufacturers not willing to take risks on escalating prices. “subcontractors are being changed market increases at the time of delivery,” states the report.
![The lead times for several building materials exceeds 20 weeks. Image: Consigli](/sites/default/files/inline-images/Consigli%20October%20Outlook.png)
MANAGING RISK TAKES DISCIPLINE
Consigli’s strategies for risk management include:
•lock in prices with subs that are willing to share risk
•buy in bulk quantities whenever possible
•consider alternative supply sources
•implement stringent quality assurance and control measures
•focus on weekly materials delivery verification
•pre-purchase and warehouse materials
•identify peak manpower needs
•utilize prefabrication that takes labor off site
•partner with trades through design-assist
Consigli thinks labor shortages could get worse in the second half of next year. The severity will depend, in part, on vaccination mandates at a time when a sizable number of construction workers still refuse to be vaccinated. But even a fully vaccinated workforce might struggle to keep pace with construction demand that the pending $1 trillion infrastructure bill, if passed, would further pressure.
The Outlook notes that some manufacturers are focusing their production capacities on commonly used materials like drywall and MEP equipment, which is limiting—and sometimes halting—the production of specialty products. And AEC firms need to be vigilant about maintaining compatibility and quality when manufacturers source products from alternate vendors.
Consigli sees some light at the end of this supply tunnel. Its Outlook notes that steel prices are starting to level off as production increases. But citing the National Roofing Contractors Association, Consigli also cautions that shortages in roofing materials and insulation (whose lead time right now is 24 weeks) will continue through next year because of raw materials supply issues.
Related Stories
| Jun 30, 2014
Harvard releases the State of the Nation’s Housing 2014
Although the housing industry saw notable increases in construction, home prices, and sales in 2013, household growth has yet to fully recover from the effects of the recession, according to a new Harvard University report.
| Jun 30, 2014
OMA's The Interlace honored as one of the world's most 'community-friendly' high-rises
The 1,040-unit apartment complex in Singapore has won the inaugural Urban Habitat award from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, which highlights projects that demonstrate a positive contribution to the surrounding environment.
| Jun 30, 2014
Work starts on Jean Nouvel-designed European Patent Office in the Netherlands [slideshow]
With around 80,000 sm and a budget of €205 million self-financed by the EPO, the complex will be one of the biggest office construction sites ever in the Netherlands.
| Jun 30, 2014
Growth of crowdfunding, public-private partnerships among top trends in architecture marketplace
A new report by the American Institute of Architects highlights several emerging trends in the architecture marketplace, including the growth of the P3 project delivery model and designing for health.
| Jun 30, 2014
Report recommends making infrastructure upgrades a cabinet-level priority
The ASCE estimates that $3.6 trillion must be invested by 2020 to make critically needed upgrades and expansions of national infrastructure—and avoid trillions of dollars in lost business sales, exports, disposable income, and GDP.
| Jun 30, 2014
Gen X, not Baby Boomers, spending the most money on homes [infographic]
It turns out that Generation X, who have the highest incomes of the three generations surveyed, are paying the highest home payments and tend to have the largest households.
| Jun 30, 2014
Zaha Hadid's Iraq Parliament complex design marred with controversy
Zaha Hadid's design for the Iraq Parliament was selected, despite placing third in the original RIBA-organized competition.
| Jun 26, 2014
Plans for Britain’s newest landmark brings in international cooperation
Designers of the London Eye will team up with companies from France, the Netherlands and the United States to construct i360 Brighton, the U.K.'s newest observation tower.
| Jun 25, 2014
The best tall buildings of 2014
Four high-rise buildings from multiple continents have been selected as the best of their region. The best worldwide tall building will be announced November 6.
| Jun 25, 2014
Frank Lloyd Wright’s Spring House, Cincinnati’s Union Terminal among 11 Most Endangered Historic Places for 2014
The National Trust for Historic Preservation released its annual list of 11 Most Endangered Historical Sites in the United States for 2014.