The good news: the cargo and transportation snags that have encumbered building material availability this year showed signs of finally easing in September.
The bad news: the lack of material supply and increasing demand for labor are keeping prices high, to the point where manufacturers aren’t willing to hold price quotes for more than a week, if at all.
That, in a nutshell, is the state of the construction market, which the general contractor Consigli lays out in its Market Outlook for October 2021. The Outlook, written by the firm’s Director of Purchasing Peter Capone and Vice President of Preconstruction Jared Lachapelle, sends up red alerts about the availability of six product categories—steel joist, steel deck, MEP equipment, roofing insulation, lab casework, and mineral/rock wool—whose lead times for fabrication after release, as of Sept. 1, ranged from 20 to 40 weeks, with steel joists having the longest wait time.
The Outlook reports a 12 percent average price escalation for the 15 building materials tracked, and anticipates another 3 percent bump through the final quarter of this year. Roofing insulation, roofing membranes, gypsum wallboard, light-gauge metal framing, and glass exceed the overall averages.
As a result of large manufacturers not willing to take risks on escalating prices. “subcontractors are being changed market increases at the time of delivery,” states the report.
MANAGING RISK TAKES DISCIPLINE
Consigli’s strategies for risk management include:
•lock in prices with subs that are willing to share risk
•buy in bulk quantities whenever possible
•consider alternative supply sources
•implement stringent quality assurance and control measures
•focus on weekly materials delivery verification
•pre-purchase and warehouse materials
•identify peak manpower needs
•utilize prefabrication that takes labor off site
•partner with trades through design-assist
Consigli thinks labor shortages could get worse in the second half of next year. The severity will depend, in part, on vaccination mandates at a time when a sizable number of construction workers still refuse to be vaccinated. But even a fully vaccinated workforce might struggle to keep pace with construction demand that the pending $1 trillion infrastructure bill, if passed, would further pressure.
The Outlook notes that some manufacturers are focusing their production capacities on commonly used materials like drywall and MEP equipment, which is limiting—and sometimes halting—the production of specialty products. And AEC firms need to be vigilant about maintaining compatibility and quality when manufacturers source products from alternate vendors.
Consigli sees some light at the end of this supply tunnel. Its Outlook notes that steel prices are starting to level off as production increases. But citing the National Roofing Contractors Association, Consigli also cautions that shortages in roofing materials and insulation (whose lead time right now is 24 weeks) will continue through next year because of raw materials supply issues.
Related Stories
Contractors | Jun 8, 2015
ABC: 49 states report decline in construction unemployment rate
Five Plain States reported the lowest unemployment rates for construction workers in April.
Contractors | Jun 5, 2015
FMI's quarterly survey finds contractors mostly optimistic about their growth
The overall economy, as well as the economy in which they do business, might be down, but contractor panelists who provided these insights still see nonresidential construction on the upswing, according to FMI’s latest report.
Contractors | Jun 2, 2015
Weather to blame for decline in Construction Backlog Indicator
Following an intense winter season, the Associated Builders and Contractors' Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) revealed a 3.2% decline during the first quarter of 2015.
Contractors | Jun 1, 2015
Nonresidential construction spending surges in April
Nonresidential construction is up by a solid 8.8% over the past year, consistent with ABC's forecast of high single-digit growth.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 1, 2015
Sacramento moves forward on multifamily project with new modular supplier
Guerdon Modular Buildings will provide modules for 118 apartments.
BIM and Information Technology | May 27, 2015
4 projects honored with AIA TAP Innovation Awards for excellence in BIM and project delivery
Morphosis Architects' Emerson College building in Los Angeles and the University of Delaware’s ISE Lab are among the projects honored by AIA for their use of BIM/VDC tools.
Healthcare Facilities | May 27, 2015
Rochester, Minn., looks to escape Twin Cities’ shadow with $6.5 billion biotech development
The 20-year plan would also be a boon to Mayo Clinic, this city’s best-known address.
BIM and Information Technology | May 21, 2015
How AEC firms should approach BIM training
CASE Founding Partner Steve Sanderson talks about the current state of software training in the AEC industry and common pitfalls in AEC training.
Architects | May 20, 2015
Architecture billings remain stuck in winter slowdown
Regional business conditions continue to thrive in the South and West
University Buildings | May 19, 2015
Special Report: How your firm can help struggling colleges and universities meet their building project goals
Building Teams that want to succeed in the higher education market have to help their clients find new funding sources, control costs, and provide the maximum value for every dollar.