The deterioration in construction output growth across emerging markets has been worse than previously expected, particularly in the US and the Middle East. Therefore, the forecast for global construction output growth in 2019 has been revised down to 2.7%, which will be the slowest pace of growth in a decade, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s central forecast sees global construction output growth increase to 3.2% in 2020 and then stabilize at 3.4% over the remainder of the forecast period, which runs to 2023. According to the company’s latest report, ‘Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q3 2019 Update’, this is partly driven by a projected improvement in the global economy in 2020, which in turn relies on improvements in financial market sentiment and stabilization in some of the larger currently-troubled emerging markets.
Danny Richards, Lead Economist at GlobalData, comments: “Some major advanced economies have struggled to generate growth momentum, including the US, the UK and Australia. In China, where the authorities are stepping up investment in infrastructure to prevent a continued slowdown, growth will remain positive, contributing to a slight acceleration in growth in total output in the emerging markets.”
Richards continues: “Geopolitical risks are intensifying, which could potentially undermine investor confidence and disrupt capital flows in the early part of the forecast period. Risks to the overall forecast stem primarily from a possible escalation in the trade war between the US and China, as well as inflamed tensions between the US and Iran following the recent drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil processing center, which were blamed on Iran.
“The emerging markets of South-East Asia will invest heavily in new infrastructure projects, supported by private investment, and this region will be the fastest growing, expanding by 6.4% between 2019 and 2023.”
Information based on GlobalData’s report: ‘Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q3 2019 Update.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jan 23, 2019
Architecture billings slow, but close 2018 with growing demand
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for December was 50.4 compared to 54.7 in November.
Market Data | Jan 16, 2019
AIA 2019 Consensus Forecast: Nonresidential construction spending to rise 4.4%
The education, public safety, and office sectors will lead the growth areas this year, but AIA's Kermit Baker offers a cautious outlook for 2020.
Market Data | Dec 19, 2018
Brokers look forward to a commercial real estate market that mirrors 2018’s solid results
Respondents to a recent Transwestern poll expect flat to modest growth for rents and investment in offices, MOBs, and industrial buildings.
Market Data | Dec 19, 2018
When it comes to economic clout, New York will far outpace other U.S. metros for decades to come
But San Jose, Calif., is expected to have the best annual growth rate through 2035, according to Oxford Economics’ latest Global Cities report.
Market Data | Dec 19, 2018
Run of positive billings continues at architecture firms
November marked the fourteenth consecutive month of increasing demand for architectural firm services.
Market Data | Dec 5, 2018
ABC predicts construction sector will remain strong in 2019
Job growth, high backlog and healthy infrastructure investment all spell good news for the industry.
Market Data | Dec 4, 2018
Nonresidential spending rises modestly in October
Thirteen out of 16 subsectors are associated with year-over-year increases.
Market Data | Nov 20, 2018
Construction employment rises from October 2017 to October 2018 in 44 states and D.C.
Texas has biggest annual job increase while New Jersey continues losses; Iowa, Florida and California have largest one-month gains as Mississippi and Louisiana trail.
Market Data | Nov 15, 2018
Architecture firm billings continue to slow, but remain positive in October
Southern region reports decline in billings for the first time since June 2012.
Market Data | Nov 14, 2018
A new Joint Center report finds aging Americans less prepared to afford housing
The study foresees a significant segment of seniors struggling to buy or rent on their own or with other people.
