Nonresidential building is on track to achieve a “breakout year” in 2015, during which spending growth could exceed 20%, according to projections by construction giant Gilbane in its Summer 2015 Construction Economics Report, “Building for the Future.”
Through the first six months of the year, construction spending for residential, nonresidential building, and nonbuilding structures was increasing at the fastest pace since 2004-2005. On that basis, Gilbane expects total construction spending to expand by 10.9% to $1.067 trillion this year (the second-highest growth total ever recorded), and by more than 8% in 2016. Construction starts are expected to be up by 13.1% to 670,595 units this year.
Nonresidential building starts, which hit a 10-year low in 2012, have been increasing at an average of 17% per year. Nonresidential buildings starts since March 2014 posted the best five quarters since the third quarter of 2008. Although growth should continue, expect it to do so at a more moderate rate, says Gilbane, which predicts those starts to increase this year by only 4.5% to 228,785 units. That construction activity, however, has been driving spending, which Gilbane predicts will increase by 20.2% to $396.7 billion this year. “Escalation will climb to levels typical of rapidly growing markets,” Gilbane observes.
But nonres building’s strengths vary markedly by sector:
- Total spending for manufacturing buildings in 2015 will reach $86.4 billion, up nearly 50% from 2014. No market sector has ever before recorded a 50% year-over-year increase, and manufacturing could replace perennial leader Education as nonres building’s biggest contributing sector. Gilbane foresees spending in this sector cooling off a bit next year to a still-strong 9% increase. Gilbane points out that the manufacturing sector, through the first half of 2015, accounted for 50% of total private construction spending, which is expected to increase this year by 14.5% to $781 billion.
- Spending for educational buildings in 2015 will total $85.3 billion, a 7.1% increase from 2014, the sector’s first substantial increase since 2008. After hitting a low in the fourth quarter of 2013 not seen since 2004, educational spending has rebounded steadily. Gilbane forecasts a 6% gain in 2016.
- Total spending for healthcare construction in 2015 should be up 7% to $41.1 billion. Healthcare spending is slowly recovering after descending to an eight-year low in the fourth quarter 2014. Spending is expected to rise by 6% in 2016.
- Spending for commercial/retail buildings—which was nonres’ strongest growth market in 2012 through 2014—is projected to jump by 8.8% to $68.2 billion this year. Gilbane notes that this sector. Commercial retail is expected to realize a gain of 5.4% in 2016.
- Office building spending in 2015 is on pace to grow by 21.2% to $55.8 billion this year, on top of a 21.3% increase in 2014. Office spending will maintain upward momentum in 2016 but at a slower pace, to 8.4%.
In its report, Gilbane discusses spending for residential construction, which it expects to grow this year by 12.9% to $388 billion, and then to taper off to a 0.7% increase in 2016. “In fact, from the fourth quarter of 2013 through March 2015, new housing starts practically stalled and the rate of residential spending declined,” Gilbane states.
Gilbane is skeptical—to say the least—about other forecasts that project housing starts to reach between 1.3 million and 1.5 million units this year, which would be twice to three times historical growth rates.
The Commerce Department’s estimates for July show housing starts rose by 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.119 million units. Multifamily starts, which over the past few years have fueled housing’s growth, were off 17% to an annualized rate of 413,000 units.
In all construction sectors, the biggest potential constraint to growth continues to be the availability of labor. Gilbane notes that the number of unfilled positions on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for the construction industry has been over 100,000 for 26 of the 28 months through June 2015, and has been trending up since 2012.
“As work volume begins to increase over the next few years, expect productivity to decline,” Gilbane cautions.
Related Stories
| Oct 15, 2012
Silicones from Dow Corning solve high-altitude technical challenges at the world’s tallest tower
The spectacular Burj Khalifa skyscraper soars to 828m above ground level, holding the record for being the world’s tallest building and also for the highest installation of an aluminum and glass façade. To take on its numerous challenges and technical difficulties, it required proven silicone solutions and full support from Dow Corning.
| Oct 15, 2012
Three new members elected to AISC Board of Directors
New members will immediately begin serving on the AISC Board of Directors, assisting with the organization's planning and leadership in the steel construction industry.
| Oct 12, 2012
Joint venture to manage construction of U.S. State Department's Foreign Affairs Security Training Center
The project will establish a center for training in a variety of security disciplines within the U.S. Department of State for the protection of diplomats and U.S. embassies abroad.
| Oct 10, 2012
Skanska to Construct Children’s Hospital of Richmond at Virginia Commonwealth University Pavilion
Skanska USA announced that it has been awarded an $80 million contract to construct a new Children’s Pavilion at Children’s Hospital of Richmond at VCU.
| Oct 9, 2012
Celebrating brick in architecture
The Brick Industry Association’s 2012 Brick in Architecture Awards put the spotlight on new projects that make creative use of one of humankind’s oldest and most beloved building materials.
| Oct 5, 2012
2012 Reconstruction Award Special Recognition: Joplin Interim High School, Joplin, Mo.
At 5:41 p.m. CDT on Sunday, May 22, 2011, an EF5 tornado touched down in Joplin, Mo. In the next 31 minutes, the mile-wide, multiple-vortex tornado, with winds up to 250 mph, destroyed two thousand buildings, including Joplin High and nine other schools.
| Oct 5, 2012
2012 Reconstruction Award Bronze Winner: DPR Construction, Phoenix Regional Office, Phoenix, Ariz.
Working with A/E firm SmithGroupJJR, DPR converted a vacant 16,533-sf one-time “adult-themed boutique” in the city’s reemerging Discovery Triangle into a LEED-NC Platinum office, one that is on target to be the first net-zero commercial office building in Arizona.
| Oct 5, 2012
2012 Reconstruction Award Bronze Winner: Pomeroy Senior Apartments, Chicago, Ill.
The entire interior of the building was renovated, from the first floor lobby and common areas, to the rooftop spaces. The number of living units was reduced from 120 to 104 to allow for more space per unit and comply with current accessibility requirements.
| Oct 5, 2012
2012 Reconstruction Award Bronze Winner: Walsh Group Training and Conference Center, Chicago, Ill.
With its Building Team partners—architect Solomon Cordwell Buenz, structural engineer CS Associates, and M/E engineer McGuire Engineers—Walsh Construction, acting as its own contractor, turned the former automobile showroom and paperboard package facility into a 93,000-sf showcase of sustainable design and construction.
| Oct 5, 2012
2012 Reconstruction Award Silver Winner: 220 Water Street, Brooklyn, N.Y.
The recent rehabilitation of 220 Water Street transforms it from a vacant manufacturing facility to a 134-unit luxury apartment building in Brooklyn’s DUMBO neighborhood.
