Nonresidential building is on track to achieve a “breakout year” in 2015, during which spending growth could exceed 20%, according to projections by construction giant Gilbane in its Summer 2015 Construction Economics Report, “Building for the Future.”
Through the first six months of the year, construction spending for residential, nonresidential building, and nonbuilding structures was increasing at the fastest pace since 2004-2005. On that basis, Gilbane expects total construction spending to expand by 10.9% to $1.067 trillion this year (the second-highest growth total ever recorded), and by more than 8% in 2016. Construction starts are expected to be up by 13.1% to 670,595 units this year.
Nonresidential building starts, which hit a 10-year low in 2012, have been increasing at an average of 17% per year. Nonresidential buildings starts since March 2014 posted the best five quarters since the third quarter of 2008. Although growth should continue, expect it to do so at a more moderate rate, says Gilbane, which predicts those starts to increase this year by only 4.5% to 228,785 units. That construction activity, however, has been driving spending, which Gilbane predicts will increase by 20.2% to $396.7 billion this year. “Escalation will climb to levels typical of rapidly growing markets,” Gilbane observes.
But nonres building’s strengths vary markedly by sector:
- Total spending for manufacturing buildings in 2015 will reach $86.4 billion, up nearly 50% from 2014. No market sector has ever before recorded a 50% year-over-year increase, and manufacturing could replace perennial leader Education as nonres building’s biggest contributing sector. Gilbane foresees spending in this sector cooling off a bit next year to a still-strong 9% increase. Gilbane points out that the manufacturing sector, through the first half of 2015, accounted for 50% of total private construction spending, which is expected to increase this year by 14.5% to $781 billion.
- Spending for educational buildings in 2015 will total $85.3 billion, a 7.1% increase from 2014, the sector’s first substantial increase since 2008. After hitting a low in the fourth quarter of 2013 not seen since 2004, educational spending has rebounded steadily. Gilbane forecasts a 6% gain in 2016.
- Total spending for healthcare construction in 2015 should be up 7% to $41.1 billion. Healthcare spending is slowly recovering after descending to an eight-year low in the fourth quarter 2014. Spending is expected to rise by 6% in 2016.
- Spending for commercial/retail buildings—which was nonres’ strongest growth market in 2012 through 2014—is projected to jump by 8.8% to $68.2 billion this year. Gilbane notes that this sector. Commercial retail is expected to realize a gain of 5.4% in 2016.
- Office building spending in 2015 is on pace to grow by 21.2% to $55.8 billion this year, on top of a 21.3% increase in 2014. Office spending will maintain upward momentum in 2016 but at a slower pace, to 8.4%.
In its report, Gilbane discusses spending for residential construction, which it expects to grow this year by 12.9% to $388 billion, and then to taper off to a 0.7% increase in 2016. “In fact, from the fourth quarter of 2013 through March 2015, new housing starts practically stalled and the rate of residential spending declined,” Gilbane states.
Gilbane is skeptical—to say the least—about other forecasts that project housing starts to reach between 1.3 million and 1.5 million units this year, which would be twice to three times historical growth rates.
The Commerce Department’s estimates for July show housing starts rose by 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.119 million units. Multifamily starts, which over the past few years have fueled housing’s growth, were off 17% to an annualized rate of 413,000 units.
In all construction sectors, the biggest potential constraint to growth continues to be the availability of labor. Gilbane notes that the number of unfilled positions on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for the construction industry has been over 100,000 for 26 of the 28 months through June 2015, and has been trending up since 2012.
“As work volume begins to increase over the next few years, expect productivity to decline,” Gilbane cautions.
Related Stories
| Dec 4, 2012
Sto Corp. announces new distributor in the Carolinas
Company will now have coverage in several parts of North Carolina.
| Dec 4, 2012
Wirtz Beverage Illinois’ corporate headquarters completed
WBI Center, a new state-of-the-art facility, is designed by Ware Malcomb.
| Dec 4, 2012
City of Gainesville to break ground on $33 million bus fleet maintenance and ops facility
The 140,000-sf facility will include dispatch, administrative and maintenance facilities.
| Nov 28, 2012
Project team to showcase design for first mixed-use retail center of its kind in Mexico City
Project reaching construction milestone, offering national model for urban development in Mexico.
| Nov 28, 2012
Cummins announces ratings classification for data center power systems
The Data Center Continuous ratings span the range of Cummins Power Generation’s high horsepower diesel generator sets, from 1 MW up to 2.5 MW, and will apply to both 50 Hz and 60 Hz configurations.
| Nov 28, 2012
Francis Cauffman appoints Stainbrook Director of Higher Education
Stainbrook has 16 years of experience as a strategic planner and urban designer working on complex projects on- and off-campus.
| Nov 27, 2012
SFIA releases technical guide for cold-formed steel framing products
The 114-page book covers both structural and non-structural applications, including section properties of SFIA member product profiles, and complete load and span tables for most applications.
| Nov 21, 2012
Architecture Billings Index positive for third straight month
All regions reporting positive business conditions
| Nov 20, 2012
PC Construction completes Juniper Hall at Champlain College
Juniper Hall is on track for LEED Gold certification from the U.S. Green Building Council.
| Nov 20, 2012
SchenkelShultz-designed Valencia at Lake Nona certified 3 Green Globes
Featuring the latest technologies, the three-story, academic facility includes academic spaces and teaching laboratories, student services, a book store, library, café, a Dean’s suite and administrative offices.